When it comes to balance sheet expansion, we have to talk about its relationship with Bitcoin's four-year halving bull cycle. Speaking of halving bull runs, it's truly one of the OG topics in the crypto space. Everyone has their own take on the causes of halving bull runs, with opinions varying widely. The more common view is that before the pandemic, the halving cycle happened to align with the Federal Reserve's easing cycle, and the excess monetary liquidity boosted Bitcoin-led risk markets in the crypto space. However, this cycle was disrupted by the pandemic. First, the FTX collapse pushed the crypto market into a bear phase earlier than expected, and then ETF-driven liquidity injections brought the bull market forward, creating a localized microclimate that has been out of sync with the Fed-led global macro environment for several years. But starting from last year's cycle of balance sheet reduction → rate cuts → stopping balance sheet reduction → balance sheet expansion → rate cuts, Bitcoin seems to be gradually returning to the macro cycle. Here’s the conclusion: Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle ≠ the Fed’s balance sheet expansion cycle, but the two often have a “mutually reinforcing” relationship. The halving determines the supply rhythm (an endogenous factor), while balance sheet expansion determines liquidity and risk appetite (an exogenous factor). When the time windows of the two overlap, it amplifies the bull market’s magnitude—2020–2021 is a textbook example. Every major Bitcoin bull market has occurred roughly 6–12 months after a halving, coinciding with periods of improved liquidity or balance sheet expansion. When these two factors resonate, it creates that bubble-like upward momentum. Fed balance sheet expansion → increase in base money → higher valuations for risk assets → crypto assets benefiting as high-beta risk exposures. This process typically has a lag of 3–6 months, which is why the crypto market often experiences dual waves of upward momentum—one internal and one external. The halving sets the supply boundary, while balance sheet expansion provides the liquidity catalyst. If historical patterns hold, Bitcoin’s main bull wave is highly likely to occur in 2026—right when the Fed’s next balance sheet expansion cycle begins. The halving cycle determines “whether there’s a bull market,” while the balance sheet expansion cycle determines “how strong the bull market will be.” When the two overlap, the market’s explosive power is at its peak. So if balance sheet expansion kicks off in 2026—that will be the liquidity core fuel for Bitcoin’s fourth super bull market.