olimpio|Oct 24, 2025 13:41
Some comments on the state of the alpha:
- STABLE from @stable was a giant scam. Insiders deposited 600M even before a public announcement was made. ofc sniping the chain can be and was done, but the BTSE-linked wallets are just daylight crime. Still on the verge of farming the next raises, will see
- MEGA from @megaeth_labs will most probably cook. Activity is lining up to sybil it hard / go all in. Received allocations could be a small portion in relation to the committed amount, and ofc they say there's lots of criteria in play, so we will see how they balance whales/community.
- Sale @ 1B FDV and HL premarket @ 4.5B FDV. Anyway, high risk of getting rekt in premarkets (first account knowledge lmao), so I wouldn't hedge. There's also no guaranteed allocation.
- XPL from @Plasma, I decentralized my whole farming allocation. I posted back then when I sold most of it for transparency, and now I am holding exactly 0 XPL. I don't think price correlates to team professionalism, defi execution, and potential capabilities, but not so much so as to hold a volatile bag, I'm a stablecoin maxi, at least for now. Still fan of the chain.
- Simply compare the Plasma sale with the Stable one, and it'll become evident. Yes, it was extremely hard to get in, but at least it wasn't an insider feast. People with skills were able to make it.
- MetaDAO @MetaDAOProject ICOs have been fair play, but yesterday's one was underwhelming (and it trades under NAV right now). So it's not guaranteed that they are all profitable.
- A TLDR: metadao has "unruggable" icos, where raised funds are kept in a smart contract with clawback possibilities via vote (it uses futarchy), and the founders can claim a monthly allowance to spend. Pretty clever IMO.
- After hype dies, some of them trade below treasury value (example, market cap 9M and treasury has 10M USDC), so there are opps there too.
- USDai @USDai_Official I had written a big piece about why the peg crashed 1 week ago, but forgot to post, now it seems too late. TLDR: the team added single-sided Curve liquidity and crashed price from 1.03 to 1.003. It's now around 1.0155.
- I'm still heavily farming this, but I was early. It might be a gigacook, or it might turn out to be overfarmed. Part of it depends on execution, but overall I like it and I keep finding the concept interesting.
- As for caps raise: I expect them to do it sooner rather than later, after reading through their public comments. I wouldn't buy overpeg, you start with a disadvantage.
- LIGHER from @Lighter_xyz will probably be coming near EOY, if we interpret Vlad's reply to cobie. They have around 180M annualized revenue, and if we take inspiration from HL, there's some huge airdrop incoming for many.
- TYDRO from @tydrohq is an Aave fork on INK, Kraken's blockchain. A not-too-talked-about points programme is in place right now via Merkl. BTC, ETH, and USDC (works with cctp). You are welcome for the dilution
🫡🫡(olimpio)
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