
金色财经|Oct 23, 2025 07:19
**[Analyst: Bitcoin and S&P 500 Index Remain in the Late Stage of a Bull Market]**
Golden Finance reports that CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr has released a market analysis indicating that both Bitcoin and the S&P 500 Index are currently in the late stage of a bull market. The S&P 500 Index has delivered a 13% return over the past 52 weeks, suggesting that the market remains in a risk-on mode—this phase reflects investors' optimism about the economic outlook, with a greater inclination to allocate assets to stocks, cryptocurrencies, and other risk assets in pursuit of higher returns.
In terms of asset correlation, Bitcoin and the S&P 500 Index show a correlation coefficient of 0.26, indicating a moderate positive correlation. This means Bitcoin's price trends tend to move in the same direction as the stock market overall, but not entirely dependent on stock market fluctuations. It is worth noting that the S&P 500 Index remains highly sensitive to macroeconomic changes and political statements. If sentiment in traditional financial markets cools, it could quickly spill over into the Bitcoin market.
By Q4 2025, market focus will shift to corporate earnings performance. After two years of yield growth, investors are increasingly focused on verifying actual earnings data. Currently, the Q3 2025 earnings season is in full swing, with all 58 companies that have reported so far exceeding expectations, with an average beat of 571 basis points. Market expectations for overall earnings growth have also been revised upward from 7% to 8%—a hallmark of the late stage of a bull market cycle. From broader market data, 85% of S&P 500 constituent companies have exceeded earnings expectations, marking the highest proportion since 2021. This strong performance has provided critical support for the late-stage bull market trend.
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