Since the sharp drop of Bitcoin last week, many people have started shouting that the bull is gone and the bear is coming. I can't say for sure what the future holds, but I think this topic is worth discussing and thinking about. To know if the bull market is still here, one must first understand how this bull market came about. There is no doubt that the spot ETF superimposes Trump's loose expectations after taking office, plus the approval of the stable currency bill. So now the condition of spot ETF has not changed, Trump's tenure has not changed, the logic of compliance easing at the bottom of the law has not changed, and the direction of the macro environment to begin to reduce interest rates and release water has not changed. So where does the bear market come from? Could it be the information collapse caused by the manipulation of the Trump family? Could it be derived from the K-line indicator? All of these may be true, but we need to analyze the causes of the bull market from the bottom level. If these basic conditions have not changed, then the logic of the bull market has not changed. Or it can be said that from bull market A to bull market B, it can gradually transition from a small bull market with ETF targeted release to a global bull market with release. But there is a bigger hidden uncertainty condition here. How should the United States end this round of confrontation between China and the United States? Is the massive financial outflow leading to currency depreciation or revitalizing the real economy. The three major foundations of this bull market - structural demand for spot ETFs, stablecoin legislation at the federal level in the United States, and the directional turning point from tight to loose at the macro level - are still in place. They determine that the logic chain of the bull market is not broken, but the rhythm is disrupted by political and leverage fluctuations, and there will be a deep pullback of "repricing/rebalancing" along the way. What can truly turn a bull into a bear is the substantial reversal of one of the fundamental conditions (policy/liquidity/compliance framework), or the further contraction of US dollar liquidity and collapse of risk appetite caused by geopolitical factors. At present, the three major bases are still established: 1. ETF=demand pipeline institutionalization 2. Stablecoin Law=US Dollar - National Level Confirmation of Cryptocurrency "Bridge" 3. Macro direction="slow variable" of declining discount rate The three truly dangerous paths of 'bull to bear': 1. Technical chain triggered by regulatory tightening or large-scale redemptions in spot ETFs 2. The resurgence of inflation forces the Federal Reserve to pause or reverse its easing path (further increase in real interest rates and strengthening of the US dollar), leading to a return to scarce global liquidity. 3. Complete failure of Sino US negotiations → Tariffs+export controls+further tightening of key minerals/high-end manufacturing chains → synchronized downward pressure on global growth expectations and risk appetite. At present, whether it is a black swan or a gray rhino in the market, they will not overturn the underlying logic and structure of the bull market from the bottom. The most extreme state of the market is nothing more than sluggish trading volume, and the overall situation is in a semi dormant and inactive state, with no possibility of a fatal bear market in the industry. The ultimate variable that will determine whether the future market will upgrade from "ETF targeted release of small cows" (referred to as Bull A) to "global release of large cows" (referred to as Bull B) may still lie in "how the United States will end after this round of confrontation between China and the United States". Because this is the prerequisite for how the United States will develop in the financial sector where it still holds a clear advantage in the future. If financial priority is adopted (loose hedging+industry subsidies+friendly bank outsourcing) → risk assets will be beneficial in the medium and long term, but will be interrupted by tariff/export control noise along the way. If we forcefully promote "physical re industrialization" (fiscal supply side bias, technology national security priority, capital expenditure squeezing liquidity), it will be unfriendly to cryptocurrency in the short term. However, if stablecoins/ETFs have been institutionalized, the bull market will not be "one size fits all", but will slow down and become smaller. The reality is mostly a mixed path: it requires both industrial security and capital markets to maintain wealth effects; Talk and fight at the same time. Ultimately, it is possible to transition from Bull A to Bull B, but the rhythm depends on how the game is set. In short, it's not 'the cow is gone' now, but 'the cow is shifting gears'. Only when the institutionalized demand pipeline is blocked, the macro direction is forcibly reversed, or when geopolitical conditions are twisted back to "extreme scarcity", is it worthy of the word "bear market". The current evidence chain is more like a relay station for Bull B through political and leverage fluctuations.