
Phyrex|Oct 06, 2025 20:46
The good news is that my premonition was not accurate. The trend of the US stock market is exceptionally strong under the cooperation of AMD and OPENAI, and BTC, which is still highly synchronized with the US stock market, has also risen to a new historical high. I still hold the 20% of my long position, and yesterday I talked about it as a gamble. I bet that investors' emotions did not decrease due to the continuous shutdown. Fortunately, I won the bet. The bad news is that I did not increase my position, or only this 20% position.
Now I wonder if I regret reducing my holdings by $116000. In fact, I almost always sell the contract and wonder why I can't hold on for a while longer. But in reality, every time I think this way, it's a survivorship bias. I've gone through a roller coaster ride more than ten times since the order was placed, and most of the time I went from profit to loss just when I was thinking about looking again.
So it's important to reconcile with oneself. Although I regret not taking longer, I still have 20% of my position that hasn't been completely emptied. Thank you for this habit. Secondly, I already have money in my pocket, and tomorrow is not the last day of Bitcoin trading. As long as there are fluctuations and I am still influenced by the macro market in the United States, I will still have the opportunity to place an order.
My future plan is also to turn 'look again' into 'reduce a bit'. In fact, many friends are not unable to make money, but have fallen into a self dilemma when they say 'I want to earn more'. Today, I had dinner with Kang Ge @ tktang88 and once again talked about his BTC and BNB sales. Now it's me comforting him that his actions were right. He has been holding assets for more than 4 years. If there were no forced discipline to restrain him, I really don't know how many roller coasters he would have to do.
After all, money in the bag is the real thing. Some people may think that this is a double standard. Well, it's not true. My idea is that if you feel that your assets are too heavy and you are wavering, selling is a way to reconcile with yourself. Although it may sell out, this market will never lack opportunities for "bottom fishing". If you have sufficient confidence and strong beliefs and theoretical support to win, then you won't even consider reducing your position.
For example, my idea is that 2028 is a period where liquidity is at least twice as high as it is now. Therefore, my strategy is aimed at 2028, and I will continue to hold positions during this cycle of the Federal Reserve, and reduce positions only at the beginning of the next cycle of the Federal Reserve.
If 2028 is 2020, then the current situation is in 2018 or 2019. Seizing core assets and striving to increase their currency based returns is my main operational approach at present.
PS: Historical high, there is still no URPD data today, and there is no gap in URPD. Everything is normal, so let's not release the chart for now.
This article is sponsored by Bitget | @ Bitgetzh
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