Today, the yield on UK long bonds soared, and the yield on US 30-year bonds came under pressure again, approaching 5%. As we discussed earlier, the biggest constraint on fiscal expansion is still debt. The bond market is worried about fiscal control, coupled with uncertainty about future inflation trends. At the end of September, the US Treasury Department will replenish the TGA account to $850 billion (with a shortfall of $200 billion left, and overnight reverse repos will start to deplete bank reserves). Bond defenders will occasionally jump out and impact the market, triggering risk asset rebounds. Then various pessimistic emotions arise, and there should be a correct understanding of this: 1. This is a risk shock rather than a bond market crisis, https://(((x.com)))/qinbafrank/status/1949291328774517180? S=46&t=k6rimWs Ebo2D2TXolYcM-A has long discussed the difference between risk and crisis; 2. Risks also need to be classified into different levels, large, medium, and small. I personally predict that this shock will be of a minor nature, and it should also lead to a minor adjustment in the US stock market. The logic is: 1) The future trend of inflation is unclear, but it has not accelerated and surged; 2) The weak labor market supports expectations of interest rate cuts; 3) The economic fundamentals such as consumption and service industries are still good, and the AI revolution is accelerating without any signs of decline; 4) The Ministry of Finance's issuance of bonds to replenish TGA accounts this time is much smaller compared to the same period in 2023. In 2023, it was several billion US dollars to be replenished to over 800 billion US dollars, and this time it was 400 billion US dollars to be replenished to 850 billion US dollars (there is currently only a gap of over 200 billion US dollars). In the third quarter of 2023, the proportion of long-term bonds issued was high, and this time it was mainly short-term bonds. So the impact will be small, but it doesn't mean there won't be any at all. 3. Looking at long-term bonds also requires differentiation. Many people shout crisis when their 30-year bonds soar, but in fact, it is more important to look at 10-year long-term bonds. US10Y is the true risk-free yield, not a 30-year or 20-year bond. At present, Beisen is supporting the bond market, especially for the US $10y. The US Treasury Department's repurchase efforts in June and August were not small. We have talked about this for a long time. https://((x.com))/qinbufank/status/1925871211923296629? S=46&t=k6rimWSEbo2D2TXolYcM-A 4.6% is the threshold for the 10-year US Treasury yield, and exceeding this threshold is worth caution. For the impact of bond market risks, the Ministry of Finance and the Federal Reserve actually have quite a few measures now. https://((x.com))/qinbank/status/1925774405071712486? s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A。