Orange Evening Interpretation 8.6 Over the past few days, off exchange fund buying has dropped significantly. Bitcoin ETFs have experienced four consecutive days of capital outflows, with 200 million outflows last night, 300 million outflows the night before, and over 800 million outflows in a single day two days ago. It is not an exaggeration to say that institutions are collectively selling, which is also the reason why the market has been declining. To be honest, with the current size of the cryptocurrency market, as long as ETFs, cryptocurrency treasuries, and other off exchange institutions stop buying, it will be difficult for the price of the cryptocurrency to maintain Especially in the knockoff market, liquidity has not been effectively injected in this round, which has resulted in 99% of knockoffs being provided by sporadic robots in terms of depth and daily trading volume. Every time the market rebounds, knockoffs always have some funds permanently withdrawn, which is why the prices of most knockoffs are getting lower and lower. Of course, there is also the reason why cryptocurrency and stocks are competing for speculative funds. Ultimately, it is because the market's gameplay has changed, The shanzhai on CEX is not the only choice for most players to participate in cryptocurrency speculation. For example, if a retail investor has one or two thousand units, they may only know how to play on the chain or contracts. If they find a strategy of playing small to big, there is a high probability that one million units will only play big coins or go to the stock market to play cryptocurrency stocks. These two are precisely the main players in the cryptocurrency market now. This means that before the market forms a highly unified narrative of players of different sizes, the traditional shanzhai season will not come. The worst thing is that players who buy old coins in the first few rounds will die miserably, just like those who buy tickets in the era of inflation and houses in the era of contraction. Of course, the market decline last night also had a macro impact. First, the macro data last night was not awesome. The PMI of the ISM service industry in the United States showed signs of weakness, and the price index was high. Investors are concerned that the risk of stagflation will make the Federal Reserve's policy path exceptionally difficult, which has suppressed expectations of interest rate cuts. Currently, the CME's expectation of a rate cut in September has dropped from over 90% the day before yesterday to 85%; But Trump's tariff stick has not finished yet. Last night, he said that he would announce tariffs on drugs and chips in the next week, with drug tariffs up to 250%. India's tariffs will be significantly increased in the next 24 hours. If the EU fails to fulfill its investment obligations to the United States, it will impose a 35% tariff, and Switzerland is also about to negotiate with the United States, as the 39% tariff is unbearable.; Then came the deadline for Trump to negotiate with Russia and Ukraine. Now the United States has begun to impose sanctions on Russia by cracking down on crude oil prices. Trump announced last night that it would significantly raise Indian tariffs in the next 24 hours, which is also a sanctions measure against Russia. The market is expecting an official truce between Russia and Ukraine, but many funds will instinctively choose to avoid risks before the deadline. Bitwise executive Matt Hougan interpreted SEC Chairman Atkins' Project Crypto speech, stating that it gave rise to three major investment opportunities. The first and most obvious opportunity is to invest in Ethereum and other first layer blockchains that support stablecoins and tokenization; The second is Coinbase, Robinhood, and other 'super apps', boldly predicting that one of them may become the world's largest financial services company, and even the first financial services company worth over $1 trillion; The third one is DeFi, which is not only a technological revolution but also a conceptual revolution. And the SEC chairman understands this. Under the SEC's new vision, assets like UNI may establish a more direct economic connection with their underlying protocols, unleashing enormous value. I basically agree with his point of view. Last night, the SEC issued a statement on liquidity pledge activities, clarifying that liquidity pledge activities are not considered securities. This has made DEFI Infrastructure's imagination huge, because the Genius Act stipulates that interest bearing stablecoins cannot be issued, so DEFI Infrastructure must be used to complete it. When the stablecoin scale reaches tens of trillions, the on chain infrastructure must reach a sufficient market value to safely manage these assets. Speaking of the market, although the purchase volume of Big Pie ETFs and listed companies has decreased recently, Ethereum ETFs can still maintain capital inflows. In addition, there have been scenes of BMNR, SBET, and dynx competing for Ethereum strategies recently, and now everyone still has opportunities. Although BMNR holds more than 800000 coins, its lead is not much. In addition, BlackRock's recent increase in holdings is also very fast, and there are expectations of pledged ETFs in the future. Therefore, Ethereum's performance is relatively strong, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate is also stable at around 0.032; In terms of shanzhai, Binance spot stocks surged twice in one breath last night, with mid-term Prove experiencing a major surge and opening up up 6x higher. FDV surged to nearly 2 billion yuan, which should be the best performing debut shanzhai in recent times. However, considering the performance of previous currencies, such as Sahara, which also surged to 2 billion yuan, but quickly halved, it shows that with the current market situation, shanzhai is difficult to maintain such a large market value. Even platforms like Pump, which have profits of nearly one million yuan per day, have to experience the tragedy of opening up and breaking down. Therefore, I do not recommend chasing this new currency anymore. However, short-term traders can operate it. Now the market focus is on this new currency. On the coin; In addition, pump is also pulling against the trend today, and the market share of the platform has also rebounded. Alon recently pushed several memes, such as the troll sduc tokabu, which performed well. Many old pump house masks have risen. In contrast, several stars on the bone have seen a sharp pullback. The useless $gp ani pullback is more than 25%, and the traffic of the platform is shifting. As I said in my previous article, pump will not be killed at once, at least it is one of the two leading companies. The reason why the currency price is not awesome is purely a dog house controlled dish washing, and the winter horizontal dish smashing dish washing dish pulling dish method is perfect. 70% of the money in the pump is in the hands of the project party, so it is too easy to control it. Compared with other copycats in the market, the pump is much stronger.