飞凡
飞凡|Jul 24, 2025 12:15
Tomorrow is the expiration date of the monthly BTC&ETH options (July 25th at 08:00 UTC) The total open interest (OI) of BTC options is approximately 40%, of which 38% (approximately $15 billion) will be settled tomorrow. The biggest pain point price is 102000, and the market price tends to approach it, According to conventional analysis, the main long short tug of war range should be between $105000 and $110000. But the problem is that the current Bitcoin price is at $118000, and unless there is a major bearish trend or large-scale hedging by institutions, it is almost impossible for it to fall back to around $105k. Therefore, this delivery will not be a script for a downward return to max pay. According to the current distribution of option OI and Gamma Profile, the new key price range for Bitcoin is between $115k and $120k, and the market is mainly dominated by long positions, so there is a high probability of a surge market. The key tomorrow is whether BTC can break through $120000.
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