Jim Bianco
Jim Bianco|Jul 22, 2025 15:19
Consider that Powell could stay on as Governor after his term as Chairman ends in May 2026, as his term as Governor does not end until January 2028. He would be "blocking" Trump from getting another opportunity to nominate someone dedicated to cutting rates until early 2028. Fed Governor terms are 14 years, so one expires every two years (see the graphic). Adriana Kugler's term ends in January 2026. This is the spot that Trump will use to nominate Powell's successor. It would not be unprecedented. Marriner Eccles finished his chairmanship in January 1948 and remained a governor until 1951. --- A possible scenario ... Suppose the Republicans lose the Senate in November 2026 and no other Federal Reserve governor leaves before January 2027. In that case, Trump will only get this one Fed appointment to replace Powell as Chairman for the rest of his second term. (Powell, or any other governor, leaving after the Democrats take control of the Senate in January 2027, probably means no nominee Trump puts forth will be confirmed.)
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