qinbafrank
qinbafrank|Jul 01, 2025 02:35
Let's also talk about Bessent's' Pennsylvania Plan ', which has been a hot topic recently. This is also a concept proposed by Deutsche Bank in a recent report: in the context of the increasingly severe deficit problem in the United States, Deutsche Bank has proposed a policy framework for the "Pennsylvania Plan" - the most likely path for current Treasury Secretary Bessent to choose. 1. The core strategy of the "Pennsylvania Plan" is to strategically redistribute the ownership of US treasury bond bonds from foreign investors to domestic investors, implement domestic financial repression, and vigorously promote a stable dollar. That's the highlight: 1) Reduce dependence on foreign buyers. Shorten the duration exposure of foreign investors, for example, to attract foreign funds through a stable dollar (supported by short-term U.S. treasury bond bonds). 2) Increase domestic absorption of maturity risk in US Treasury bonds. Deutsche Bank pointed out that the US private sector's balance sheet is robust, with high cash holdings and the potential to absorb sovereign credit risk. Policy measures include incentivizing domestic purchases of long-term US bonds through regulatory exemptions (such as relaxing the requirement for banks to supplement leverage ratios on US bonds), tax incentives, and issuing special bonds. When incentive measures fail to fully increase domestic absorption, mandatory purchase of longer-term US Treasury bonds will be the next step. For example, promoting retirement plans to absorb more government debt or tightening liquidity requirements for banks and insurance companies. 2. A few days ago, I was saying that the Federal Reserve would relax the SLR supplementary leverage ratio https://(x.com)/qinbank/status/1938040291958694266? When s=46&t=k6rimWs Ebo2D2TXolYcM-A Talking about: Relaxing the SLR and stablecoin bills are the two major ways for Beisen to find solutions to the demand for US bonds. The former delves deep into existing resources, while the latter takes a different approach to seek new demands. Secretly aligned with the core strategy of the 'Pennsylvania Plan' here 3. However, it should also be made clear that the change of ownership of US treasury bond bonds from US investors to US domestic investors has been imperceptibly taking place for more than 10 years. We talked about it in the tweet of US bond holders' position swap before that, in 2013, the proportion of US overseas investors holding US bonds exceeded 50%, and then decreased year by year. In April of 25 years, the proportion of US overseas investors holding US bonds has dropped to 22%. So the curling stone Beisen actively sought change, but passively followed this trend and looked ahead to prepare for the future. It can be seen that the strategies promoted by Beisen now will further accelerate the process of transferring US bond holders to domestic investors in the United States. 4. The relaxation of regulations led by Besant, the stablecoin bill, and the promotion of domestic purchases of long-term bonds. The significance of these core strategies for the United States lies in: 1) As mentioned above, holders of US Treasury bonds are rapidly shifting towards the domestic investor community in the United States. When the proportion of US overseas investors holding US Treasury bonds drops below 15%, the impact and volatility of overseas investors' behavior on US Treasury bonds may not be as significant as they are now. 2) Internal debt is not debt. Internal debt (i.e. debt owed by a country or institution to domestic creditors) can be "internally digested" to some extent through policy regulation, currency issuance, and other means, unlike external debt that requires facing international creditors, involving foreign exchange reserves, or international reputation issues. 3) Stabilize the treasury bond bond market and the US dollar exchange rate. If the proportion of domestic investors holding treasury bond increases, capital outflows will decrease, which will help stabilize the treasury bond market and exchange rate. 4) The stablecoin bill has greater significance in promoting the stability of the US dollar globally. Previously, here was https://(x.com)/qinbafrank/status/1937913264551432318? S=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A has talked about "many countries are de dollarizing, but the dollar stable currency will directly draw people from all countries to the dollar camp in the future", which is to cut off people from African countries on the chain. Another way is to strengthen the dollar, which is more drastic. ” 5. Looking to the future In the past two years, the United States has made a lot of layouts in the cryptocurrency industry, gradually gaining pricing and discourse power over cryptocurrency assets from ETFs to deregulation. Through the stablecoin bill, the cryptocurrency industry has been closely linked to the US dollar and US bonds. In the future, it is possible to link the US dollar to digital assets through Bitcoin strategic reserves, and it is indeed possible to fully occupy a leading position in the new capital system. For China, the competition game has escalated and new countermeasures are indeed needed. The mainland is subject to capital controls, but Hong Kong has ample room for development. We should promote the issuance of offshore RMB stablecoins and participate in the global cryptocurrency game to enhance the international influence of the RMB and respond to the potential dominance of the United States in this field.
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