𝐓𝐗𝐌𝐂
𝐓𝐗𝐌𝐂|Jun 24, 2025 20:20
I don't think the ingredients are there for housing to catalyze a recession. But what we do have to contend with is the very high likelihood that household consumption will struggle to rebound in the next downturn without helicopter stimulus and pandemic era rates returning… Because of the 2020-21 mortgage boom and the rate insensitivity it created with existing homeowners. The refinancing channel is clogged unlike any cycles before now. Stored up equity will be expensive to access and relief will be hard to find. And there's almost nothing we can do about it before it matters. We've made our bed.
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