qinbafrank
qinbafrank|Jun 21, 2025 04:10
The recent strength of Circle reflects the difference in views between the US stock market and the cryptocurrency market towards stablecoins. Whether US stocks are expensive depends on the dynamic price to earnings ratio, and future expectations depend on the forward price to earnings ratio. It seems that the expectation of the US stock market for Circle is that if stablecoins can really grow to trillions of US dollars in the next few years and USDC maintains its current market share of over 20%, then at least USDC's volume can reach 250 billion or even 300 billion US dollars in the next few years, short-term bond yields can be maintained at around 3%, interest income of 7.5 billion to 9 billion US dollars plus future non trading payment income, the total revenue can exceed 10 billion US dollars. If the channel cost can be lower in the future, then the net profit can reach billions to 2 billion US dollars, which is equivalent to the forward P/E ratio of Circle falling back to more than 30 times in two or three years. From this perspective, the recent strong performance of Circle's stock price can also be justified. The problem here is: 1. If we continue to rise and the forward P/E ratio goes straight to 40 or even above 50, will our short-term expectations for the next two to three years also be fully met? 2. With the expected approval of the stablecoin bill and the trend towards the integration of cryptocurrency and stocks in the future, the issuance of USDC has not increased in the past month and a half, but has slightly decreased. Why is this? 🤔
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