qinbafrank
qinbafrank|Jun 07, 2025 13:58
Owen mentioned a good point: Trump Besant will start the active monetary policy of yield curve control later. I understand that the logic here lies in: at the beginning of taking office, Trump promoted the policy line of external tariff reform and internal efficiency reform to reduce staff and cost, and strive to increase income and reduce expenditure. The purpose, intention, and starting point are actually not a problem, but the pace of policy implementation is completely out of control, resulting in a huge impact and fluctuation caused by the immense pain. In this case, shifting from contractionary policies to expansionary policies. Although tax reduction and deregulation are the earliest campaign commitments, the strength of the beautiful bill should exceed Trump's early expectations. If the new route encounters problems, then return to the old path. Against the backdrop of tax cuts and a significant increase in the debt ceiling, controlling the yield curve to curb the rise of long-term bond yields has become a top priority. After all, only by lowering the long-term bond yield can the future cost of issuing bonds be reduced and the debt burden be reduced. But Powell did not cooperate, so the next chairman of the Federal Reserve was selected with only 11 months left in Powell's term, hoping to reduce the impact of Powell's attitude on the market through this "shadow chairman" arrangement. The game between Chuanbei and Powell in the future is worth paying attention to. Personally, I think that in the short term, the "shadow Fed chairman" cannot influence the market and hedge Powell's influence. After all, there is still nearly a year left in his term, and the market cannot react so early. However, as Powell's term shortens, the shadow chairman's say will become increasingly significant. My expectation is that as time goes on, when Powell's term is only half a year or even shorter, the power of the "shadow Fed chairman" will become increasingly powerful, and at this point, the market may have to care about what Powell says. Simply put, Powell's attitude will have a greater weight in the next six months, and then the attitude of the "shadow Fed chairman" will have a greater impact.
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