
BITWU.ETH 🔆|May 30, 2025 06:48
🧐 Stablecoins in the Second Half: The On Chain Dollar Revolution Starts, Why Pendle is the Interest Heart of the Billion Dollar Yield Market?
The GENIUS stablecoin bill in the US Senate is the most noteworthy topic recently:
The stablecoin bill has opened up the imagination of Crypto for the next 10 years, meaning that the legal identity of stablecoins will be "officially recognized". It is no longer a "shadow dollar" in the gray area, but a financial instrument with clear compliance attributes.
This means that the growth space of stablecoins is no longer just an internal loop for cryptocurrency players, but a true external loop for global capital, sovereign funds, and large-scale exposure to US dollar demand.
The media focuses on regulation, investors pay attention to US dollar arbitrage, and policy experts focus on international games;
And what I see is opportunity. I think the hidden protagonist of this scene is actually the on chain revenue market.
The United States has not only approved the issuance of new coins or the printing of a few more dollars on the blockchain, but has also approved the transformation of the 250 billion digital dollars on the blockchain into a complete financial puzzle based on interest rates, returns, and capital efficiency.
one ⃣ The second half of stablecoins is the battle of capital efficiency
Looking back at the first half of stablecoins, it was a game of trust, circulation, and anchoring:
The rise of USDT, USDC, and DAI is due to their provision of a new digital tool for global users to hedge, store value, and transfer funds.
Today, there are $250 billion worth of stablecoins on the chain alone, but their capital efficiency is too low——
If you just put U in your wallet or centralized platform, there is no essential difference from putting US dollars in your bank account: static, passive, dead money.
The market revolution has quietly arrived - in the past 18 months, there have been more and more yield based stablecoins appearing in the market (such as Ethena's sUSDe, Falcon's sUSDf),
The scale has skyrocketed from<1.5B to 11B, and the market penetration rate has increased from 1% to 4.5%. It is expected to reach 15% in the next two years.
It can be observed that the market has entered a completely different dimension:
Stablecoins are not just a store of value, but also a profit machine on the chain, the fuel for derivative trading, and the cornerstone of structured capital operations.
This is the second half of stablecoins - from 'only for transfers' to' actively participating in income, interest rates, and capital flows'.
So the problem is, having these assets alone is not enough:
--Who will provide them with an efficient interest rate market?
--Who will circulate, derive, and redistribute capital between agreements?
--Who will bear the systematic upgrade of profits and leverage on the entire chain?
Traditional stablecoin protocols, lending protocols, and DEX cannot handle this aspect.
But @ pendle_fi can, because it is neither a rival to stablecoins nor a supplement to them, but a necessary financialization bridge for stablecoins to 'enter the next stage'.
two ⃣ Why is Pendle a systematic puzzle?
I know that some people's impression of Pendle is still limited to the 'high APR airdrop farm', but if you look at the data, you will know what Pendle has evolved into——
✅ 4B TVL, 83% of it comes from stablecoins
✅ 30% of the global revenue stablecoin market's traffic is absorbed on Pendle
✅ Marketize PT and YT, allowing capital players to price, trade, leverage, and hedge themselves
The essence of this operation is the same as your use of treasury bond as collateral lending, interest rate swap and credit derivatives in TradFi.
Just seeing this layer is far from enough, because I believe Pendle is likely to become a systemic winner under the stablecoin bill. Why? ——
1) Stablecoin Increment: The global stablecoin market has grown from a 1.5B revenue share in 2024 to the current 11B, and is expected to reach 75B in the next two years. Pendle can currently eat 30% of this, which is a potential growth plate for 25B TVL.
2) Interest rate instrumentalization: On the chain, interest rates used to be "passive income" (lending, pledging), but Pendle has turned it into an "actively tradable tool". Just like US Treasury rates and interest rate futures, which have become pricing anchors for global finance, Pendle has the potential to become an interest rate anchor for on chain assets.
3) External effects: Pendle is not closed loop, it forms multiple nested effects with protocols such as Aave and Morpho. For example, assets such as PT sUSe can be directly pledged on Aave, leveraged, and then invested back into Pendle. This cross protocol liquidity is the true peak of capital efficiency.
4) Emerging stablecoin incubators: Pendle has become a must-have channel for new stablecoin issuers such as Ethena, Spark, and Open Eden to initiate liquidity, guide the market, and attract early users. In other words, Pendle is like an on chain Nasdaq, bringing various new stablecoin assets into the liquidity pool.
let me put it another way:
Pendle is no longer just a platform, but the heart of the on chain interest rate market, the CME, LCH, and Clearstream of the new generation of encrypted finance.
three ⃣ The Alpha Spark pool right in front of us is an excellent window for the present
From a global perspective, let's return to the operational level: Pendle has dozens of stablecoin pools, what should we choose to mine?
Interested friends can research this tweet from @ ViNc2453, which is very detailed: https://(x.com)/ViNc2453/status/1924394935530471840
The USDS pool that I am currently most interested in and observing is the newly opened Spark @ spakdotfi, for several reasons——
🔺 Spark itself is a sub DAO of Sky (formerly MakerDAO), with a deep experience in stablecoin systems, backed by 7B TVL and an entire stablecoin ecosystem.
🔺 The project has not been launched yet, the only thing that can be mined is Spark Points, and currently Pendle is the only platform that can directly mine points.
🔺 The PT yield is 8.8%, the LP yield is 9.3%+25x Spark Points, and the YT-USDS line looks a bit boring: on the surface, the annualized yield looks almost zero, even negative, but the real key is - point exposure. The current base is 25x, and with leverage, it can be pulled up to 1000x exposure.
I think Spark's stablecoin pool is a good combination of market structural potential and short-term alpha on the Pendle platform;
However, these numbers alone are not intuitive enough. Let's deduce the potential returns——
At present, Spark has set aside a separate points pool for the Pendle event, accounting for 1.2% of the total (approximately 120M SPK tokens). At the rate of point accumulation, Pendle users can earn approximately 142.6B points after 78 days (corresponding to the expiration of this round of points activity), and the final points after adding the safety net are 261.2B points;
Assuming that Spark's final FDV is reasonably expected to be between 250M and 1B - converted to approximately 23 per million cents, or approximately 0.04485 payout per YT.
The most crucial thing is that these points are completely independent and separate from the airdrop shares obtained from pre farm activities such as Aave and Lend, and are directly attributed to a pool of over 1200M unallocated tokens in the Genesis stage. This is a relatively scarce new opportunity, and many people are still in an information blind spot.
But one thing to note is that the prerequisite for buying YT is that you have a long-term positive outlook on Spark's market recognition and point value.
If the actual future return rate is lower than expected, or if the project points/token valuation is greatly discounted, the return you may receive may be lower than the cost you pay, resulting in a loss of principal. So DYOR, choosing the timing of entry is very important.
Coincidentally, the recent PT/LP income pools have all matured, so it is worth considering seamlessly connecting funds to Spark - in the Dashboard, click on the expired PT or LP assets to redeem them, or directly roll over and invest them into the new Spark pool.
four ⃣ Conclusion——
Upon careful consideration, the true meaning of the GENIUS Act is not just to license stablecoins; Behind this bill, the most worthwhile bet is not on stablecoins themselves, but on infrastructure agreements that can revitalize, spin off, leverage, and circulate them.
Pendle's opportunity is no longer a high-yield pool or an airdrop gambling game, but to participate in a financial system level experiment:
When the DeFi world expands from asset stock to capital structure optimization, who is the central hub that can carry the entire liquidity upgrade?
I don't know if Pendle will be the ultimate winner, but I'm sure it's already sitting at that table. If Uniswap and Aave were the first financial architectures in the crypto world, then Pendle is the central hub for efficient operation in the second half.
So, if you are a long-term investor, it's best to put PENDLE on your core watchlist for the next three to five years, seeing it as a three-level resonance of global dollarization, free capital flow, and personal sovereignty. Perhaps you will be more able to understand and identify with it!
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