Daan Crypto Trades
Daan Crypto Trades|May 21, 2025 18:05
The SPX bounce has been pretty insane, recovering back to its yearly open and is now green since Liberation day. Although I've been loving this bounce after buying into tech stocks during the first week of April (shared on here), the sheer pace of this bounce is what makes me a little cautious. This recovery, although a smaller move, has only taken about a month. Compared to for example 3 months after the covid crash which was paired with massive stimulus. Something we don't have (yet). I did scale out a good bunch of profits after most of the buys have been up 30-50% in the matter of weeks. Generally you expect those returns over 1-3 years on average. Not 4 weeks. So happy to scale out in that regard and have some cash on the side. As for BTC, it has been strong during the tariff drama but has kinda stalled against SPX since the US/China "deal" was made. I would assume some higher low being created does put some pressure on BTC as well. If stocks go down and BTC holds up well then that'd be incredibly bullish but I think this mostly comes down to the pace of the sell off (when it comes). Anyways, we'll see what we get. I think we've gone from sentiment expecting a 1929 depression repeat to a lot of good news being baked in now, within a 1 month time span. Expecting summer to be mostly choppy and don't like the risk/reward on equities much in the short/mid term. If we get 5250 or 5500 I'll start slowly scaling back in exposure. For now I'm happy yielding 4-5% on the cash while I wait out what the market does next.
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