QCP Capital: BTC may maintain range volatility as macro narrative shifts from protectionism to trade optimism

According to QCP Capital, the United States and China have agreed to temporarily lift some tariffs, driving the US stock market up 3%. The price of gold fell by nearly 3% at one point, and then partially rebounded. After a preliminary decline, BTC and ETH stabilized at around $103000 and $2400, respectively. BTC's dominant position has dropped below 63%, while altcoins such as ETH have performed well. BTC is still wavering between its identity as a "digital gold" and its role as a risky asset, and this tense situation makes its direction unclear. As the macro narrative shifts from protectionism to trade optimism, BTC may maintain interval volatility. However, a long-term investment perspective may support the demand for back-end options, reduce the need for front-end put hedging, and lead to a steepening of the volatility curve. In contrast, the trend of ETH is clearer. The fund side remains neutral, with options leaning towards put, indicating that its breakthrough is not driven by speculation. Breaking through $2400 in sync with the Pectra upgrade and the resurgence of long-term option liquidity may indicate that ETH is becoming the next major allocation target in the market.