Phyrex
Phyrex|May 09, 2025 14:32
Brother Wu's problem is quite good, and I have been looking at liquidity recently. According to traditional liquidity data, even when BTC fell to $16000 in 2022, there was not much difference in overall liquidity in the United States. It can be seen that they were all in a volatile range and did not show a significant breakthrough. Especially recently, Bitcoin has returned to $100000, but liquidity has actually declined. So I marked a few times, and it can be seen that in 2021, the rise in liquidity drove the synchronous rise of BTC and the S&P 500, while in February 2024, the rise in BTC was mainly due to ETFs. Although there was not much change in liquidity during this period, traditional funds did start buying ETFs, which was equivalent to buying BTC, and actually brought "directed liquidity". Next, November 2024 will be the period of the US general election. Trump has driven BTC to rise. Up to now, compared with the US stocks and BTC, BTC has obviously risen more in the direction, although it has been rising all the time. At present, it has recovered almost all the declines since the tariff, and the US stocks have not yet returned to the level of February 25. To say more about the US stock market, the S&P or NASDAQ index alone is indeed rising well, but the mainstream funds of this cycle are all in the seven sisters, which has little to do with other tracks. From the data of Russell 2000 and ETH, it is more obvious that the liquidity is suppressed, and several sharp rises are related to events. Although the rise of ETH is good, it is obvious that Russell 2000 is also the strongest in the US stock index. This is probably not directly related to liquidity, but rather the expectation of sector rotation by the funds on the exchange. The last time this happened was at the end of 2024, and it did happen. However, because there was indeed no external liquidity, or in other words, the United States did not enter monetary easing, liquidity did not increase. So, I think the increase in purchasing power is due to confidence, but interestingly, the increase in funds on the exchange is not very strong. Instead, it gives me the feeling of a replica of February 2024. Investors were not optimistic about the spot ETFs at that time, thinking they were selling the news and had already turned negative after landing, so many people were shorting or waiting for prices to fall. As a result, there was no decline at all, and it rose directly from $46000 to $73000. The rapid rise caused many people to go short, reducing selling pressure without using a lot of funds. However, the price also rose. From the current perspective, the amount of funds raised is even less than at that time, indicating that more investors went short in this wave. On the contrary, it was during the highly competitive period of the US presidential election that a large amount of funds emerged, allowing a large number of investors to get on board. This tweet is sponsored by @ ApeXProtocolCN | Dex With Apex
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