
Phyrex|Apr 30, 2025 17:43
In the history of the United States, there have only been three instances of quantitative easing (QE), all of which occurred during periods of significant economic pressure, or in other words, during post recession reconstruction. The conditions for QE to occur were when interest rates were zero or close to zero, which means that it was only during the later stages of monetary easing when the US federal funds rate was at 0.25% or 0.
In general, the average time required to go from high interest rates (4.5%) to zero interest rates is 16 months. Therefore, if a recession occurs by the end of 2025 and the Federal Reserve significantly cuts interest rates, it will not be until mid-2027 that it can return to or approach zero interest rates, and then consider whether to start QE based on the degree of destruction.
In addition, the more severe the economic recession, the greater the pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and the shorter the interval between them may be.
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