大老师Bugsbunny
大老师Bugsbunny|3月 07, 2025 04:49
In the short term, the impact of the current situation on BTC can be analyzed from two aspects: on the one hand, the current situation is lower than market expectations; On the other hand, in the current complex macro environment, this is already the fastest and most positive progress. First of all, considering multiple factors such as tariff war, Russia Ukraine mediation, Doge's reduction of federal budget, and high US treasury bond, it is almost impossible for Congress to promote BTC legislation as the US federal reserve. In contrast, using taxpayers' funds to purchase BTC through an executive order signed by the president is almost immune to resistance. However, even if we want to promote BTC to become the Federal Reserve, we must wait until these problems are solved and the US treasury bond debt is eased before we can promote legislation in Congress. Secondly, the BTC price is currently fluctuating at about 90000 dollars, while the figure before Trump took office was only 60000 dollars. It is unlikely that the United States will push for relevant laws at such high price levels, as serious institutions typically do not make large-scale investments in high-risk assets in highly uncertain macro environments. In addition, the current policy only suspends new purchases of BTC and does not rule out the possibility of advancing new laws to establish a BTC federal reserve after the macro environment improves. Once the United States implements its BTC strategic reserve, other countries may follow suit, and regions that have not confiscated BTC may reassess the necessity of their BTC reserves. In summary, in the short term, although the current situation is lower than expected, this is already a positive development in the complex macro environment. In the future, with the improvement of the macro environment, legislation for the BTC Federal Reserve may still be pushed forward.
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