Google's 85 billion stock issuance breaks historical records, Buffett's 10 billion bet on AI infrastructure.

CN
2 hours ago
If AI ultimately disappoints, Alphabet will not disappear, but other companies might.

Author: Claude, Deep Tide TechFlow

Deep Tide Guide: On June 2, Alphabet completed a pricing of $84.75 billion in equity financing, breaking the $70 billion record set by Petrobras in 2010. The initial issuance planned for $40 billion was expanded to $45 billion due to oversubscription; Berkshire Hathaway anchored institutional confidence with a targeted subscription of $10 billion.

Meanwhile, SpaceX's $75 billion IPO is set to be listed on Nasdaq on June 12, with both Anthropic and OpenAI secretly submitting S-1. The total amount of AI-related equity financing in 2026 may exceed $400 billion, nine times the IPO market of last year.

Alphabet has dropped a bombshell in the capital market.

According to SEC filings and Bloomberg reports, Alphabet completed a total of $84.75 billion in equity financing pricing, making it the largest single equity issuance in history globally, surpassing the record by over $14 billion set by Petrobras in 2010 at $70 billion. CEO Sundar Pichai stated on platform X that the initial issuance was expanded from $40 billion to about $45 billion due to oversubscription. Following the announcement, Alphabet's stock price fell by about 4%.

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The destination of this capital is clear: AI infrastructure. Pichai defined it as "part of a multi-year investment strategy to seize the opportunities brought by AI." Alphabet's capital expenditure guidance for 2026 has been raised to between $180 billion and $190 billion, nearly double the full-year amount of $91.4 billion in 2025.

How the $84.75 billion was raised: A four-layer structure breakdown

This financing is not a simple public market issuance but a composite structure made up of four components.

According to the FWP document submitted to the SEC, the specifics consist of: $18 billion in Class A common stock and Class C capital stock underwriting issuance (expanded from the original plan of $15 billion); $16.75 billion in mandatory convertible preferred stock depositary receipts (expanded from the original plan of $15 billion), with a fixed dividend rate of 6.25%; a $40 billion at-the-market issuance plan (ATM) to gradually sell shares to the market starting from the third quarter; and a $10 billion directed issuance from Berkshire Hathaway.

The underwriting portion was priced at $355.20 per share for Class A shares and $351.80 per share for Class C shares. The common stock and depositary receipts issuances completed settlements on June 4 and June 5, respectively.

With Alphabet's total market capitalization of approximately $4.2 trillion, this financing scale is less than 2% of the market value. According to Seeking Alpha analysis, considering the issuance structure and employee stock option tax obligations, the actual dilution effect may be lower than the book numbers.

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Berkshire's $10 billion subscription: Value investors place a trust vote in AI infrastructure

Berkshire Hathaway's $10 billion directed subscription is the most noteworthy single transaction in this round of financing.

According to SEC documents, Berkshire subscribed to an equal amount of Class A and C shares at approximately a 6.5% discount. This company, known for value investing, has long been seen as a conservative player in tech investments. However, from heavily investing in Apple to now directly participating in AI infrastructure financing, Berkshire's move signifies a message: even the most cautious institutional capital has regarded AI infrastructure as an asset class worth betting on.

According to TechCrunch reports, Pichai specifically mentioned Berkshire's participation on platform X, emphasizing that its "long-term commitment to value investing" aligns with Alphabet's investment logic.

Google's confidence: Q1 revenue $110 billion, cloud business backlog over $460 billion

Alphabet is confident enough to write an $85 billion financing check at this moment, based on a set of hard data.

In the first quarter of 2026, Alphabet's total revenue reached $110 billion, up 22% year-over-year. Among them, Google Cloud revenue was $20 billion, a 63% year-over-year increase, with contract backlog almost doubling from the previous quarter to over $460 billion, approximately 50% expected to be recognized as revenue within the next 24 months. Google Search and other business revenues grew by 19% year-over-year to $60.4 billion, with Google paid subscriber count reaching 350 million. According to reports from Prof G Media, Gemini's monthly active users have approached 900 million.

Pichai explicitly stated during the Q1 earnings call: "We are constrained by supply of computing power in the short term," CFO Anant Ashkenazi added that capital expenditures in 2027 are expected to "grow significantly again." In other words, the annual capital expenditures of $180 billion to $190 billion are just the starting point.

Alphabet's President and Chief Investment Officer Ruth Porat played a key role in this round of financing. Prof G Markets host Scott Galloway commented that Alphabet could fully complete this investment using cash on its balance sheet, but Porat chose a smarter approach: financing with low-cost external capital while locking in investor amounts ahead of the IPOs of Anthropic and OpenAI. "Every resource is limited, including the appetite of investors for AI infrastructure. Google just took $85 billion off the table," Galloway wrote.

AI financing super cycle: SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI lining up for IPO

Alphabet's issuance is not an isolated event but the opening of a super cycle in the AI capital market in 2026.

SpaceX publicly submitted its S-1 prospectus on May 20, planning to issue 556.6 million shares at $135 per share, raising $75 billion, corresponding to a valuation of approximately $1.75 trillion. According to Bloomberg reports, the company is expected to price on June 11 and officially list on Nasdaq on June 12 under the ticker "SPCX." The roadshow was launched on June 4, receiving oversubscription. If completed, this would be the largest IPO in history.

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Anthropic secretly submitted its S-1 draft to the SEC on June 1. Previously, on May 28, the company had completed a $65 billion Series H financing, with a post-investment valuation of $965 billion, surpassing OpenAI's $852 billion, making it the highest-valued AI company in Silicon Valley. According to multiple media reports, Anthropic's IPO target window is expected to be around October 2026, with a first-day valuation exceeding $1 trillion seen as a basic expectation.

OpenAI is also not falling behind. According to CNBC reports on May 20, OpenAI is preparing to secretly submit its IPO prospectus draft, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley as lead underwriters, targeting a valuation of over $1 trillion, with the listing window between September and November 2026.

Supply shock of the $400 billion financing wave: Can the market absorb it?

When these numbers are totaled, the scale of capital market financing in 2026 is unprecedented.

According to Galloway's calculations, the largest year for IPO financing in history was 2021, with total of approximately $140 billion for the year. The total financing from Google's issuance along with the IPOs of SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI has far exceeded this record. If other AI-related listings and the entire financing pipeline for 2026, including Cerebras, are also counted, the total equity issuance for the year may exceed $400 billion, about nine times the size of last year's IPO market.

Galloway raised a sobering historical data point: among the last 30 significant IPOs, the average maximum drawdown within a year of listing was 55%. "The IPO moment is the peak of speculation, the peak of demand. You are competing with every fund manager in the world for shares that everyone wants," he wrote, "the smarter approach is often to wait for the speculation to fade and find entry points when fear is greater than greed."

For investors, Galloway provided a concise framework: Want exposure to AI but unsure if Anthropic or OpenAI is worth that valuation? Buy Google. It is already one of the greatest businesses of all time, relatively fairly valued, offers upside potential, but with risks far lower than pure AI companies. If AI ultimately disappoints, Alphabet will not disappear, but other companies might.

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