Against the backdrop of rapidly rising macro risk sentiment, Bitcoin delivered a "countertrend surge" to the market on May 24, 2026. On that day, mainstream exchanges such as HTX and OKX saw prices consecutively break through the $77,000 mark, with a 24-hour increase of about 2%–3%. The upward red bar on the candlestick chart seemed more like another charge to continue the bull market. However, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. poured cold water on the momentum nearly simultaneously: in his view, under the severe deterioration of the macro environment, Bitcoin's structural bullish momentum has vanished, and the market is overall transitioning to a risk-averse mode. The demand momentum for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs is also far below the peak periods of 2024–2025, and he even defined the current market situation as an "unconfirmed rebound." Prices refreshed their stage highs, while institutions and long-term funds significantly reduced their risk exposure. This dislocation between rising prices and cautious funding, coupled with heightened macro pressure, has formed the core and most dangerous uncertainty of this rebound.

Price Attack on 77,000: Excitement in Sentiment but Hesitation in Funding

On May 24, Bitcoin surged past $77,000 on exchanges such as HTX and OKX, with a daily increase of about 2%–3%, giving the bulls a highly symbolic victory signal. After crossing the critical threshold, short-term sentiment clearly warmed up, and technical analysts began to re-discuss "upward channels" and "new trends." The bullish narrative on social media quickly resurfaced, interpreting this breakout as a "repair" of the previous pullback. On the surface, it seemed like a typical scenario of the market re-embracing risk: new price highs, beautiful candlestick charts, and ignited sentiment.

However, the financial picture was much more sober. CryptoQuant analysts pointed out that the demand momentum for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs is still significantly below the peak phase of 2024–2025, and current ETF fund behavior is noticeably more conservative compared to then, indicating that real institutional long money capable of generating marginal buying has not chosen to collectively chase higher above $77,000. In contrast, multiple Chinese media outlets recorded an abnormal activity of leveraged trading in the derivatives market that day, with some high-leverage positions being forcibly liquidated during sharp fluctuations. The upward price movement and the clearing chain propelled each other, compressing existing funds back and forth between futures and contracts. The result is: prices appeared to be pushed up, but it was more about existing funds accelerating the betting on leverage, rather than new money entering on a large scale. This structural situation of "a beautiful rise but a thin base" laid a higher uncertainty for subsequent volatility.

Rising Macro Risks: Dollar and Volatility Covering On-Chain Positives

Entering 2026, the macro environment described by several analysts as "rapidly deteriorating" has, in fact, set boundaries for this price rebound. Under the combination of a strengthening U.S. dollar index, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and a strengthening VIX, global funds seem to be repricing risk: a stronger dollar means an increased relative attractiveness of risk-free assets, rising Treasury yields have heightened the discount rate for all risk assets, and a rising VIX directly amplifies expectations of future volatility. In this situation where all three indicators are concurrently rising, Bitcoin has been placed back into the basket of "high beta assets," facing first the selling pressure from risk aversion, rather than incremental buying from new funds. Axel Adler Jr. thus judges that Bitcoin's previous structural bullish momentum has vanished, leading the market overall to enter a risk-averse mode, with macro variables becoming one of the dominant forces weighing down prices.

The "covering mode" he speaks of refers to seeing these three macro indicators as a thicker filter: as long as the U.S. dollar, Treasury yields, and VIX remain high, even if on-chain fundamentals appear healthy, price signals will be suppressed by this layer of filter. The significantly weakened demand momentum for ETFs compared to the peaks of 2024–2025 makes it easier for this macro filter to dominate prices. Because there is a lack of sustained passive buying in the spot market, the marginal improvement of on-chain funds is difficult to penetrate directly into the candlestick charts. For Axel, a key piece of evidence is that the on-chain "Impulse" indicator remains below the zero axis. He thus concludes that until this indicator returns above the zero axis, every upward attempt by Bitcoin is just an unconfirmed technical rebound. Rising macro risks, cooling ETF demand, and unchanged on-chain momentum indicators intertwine, making the price above $77,000 more like a high range pushed up by leverage and short-term sentiment under heightened volatility, rather than the starting point of a new trend endorsed by macro and on-chain fundamentals.

Liquidation of "Strategy Counterparty" Accounts: High Leverage Shelled by the Market

In such a high-volatility background of "unconfirmed rebound," an account marked by on-chain monitoring and regarded as a typical case of "Strategy counterparty" in Chinese communities encountered a violently symbolic pullback on May 24. Public data and reviews by several Chinese media show that on the day Bitcoin hit $77,000, the Ethereum long positions of this account were completely liquidated, and Bitcoin short positions originally bet with 40 times leverage also faced partial liquidation and passive reduction. As prices surged past critical levels, it pushed this account to the liquidation threshold, leaving behind about 8.332 BTC and an overall investment return rate of about -73.05%. This curve is almost a textbook case of high-leverage trading being "harvested by the market" during a risk-averse cycle.

The symbolic significance of this event far exceeds the profits and losses of a single account. On one hand, it illustrates that under the framework of worsening macro conditions, declining institutional demand, and overall lower risk appetite in the derivatives market, the market's tolerance for extreme leverage like 40 times is rapidly shrinking; on the other hand, it clearly shows exchanges and other participants that during periods of volatility amplified by macro variables, the risk engine will trigger forced liquidations more frequently and mechanically, delegating what should be managed by proactive risk control to clearings. This will transmit to the pricing structure of crypto assets in two directions—first, the successive liquidations of high-leverage long and short positions make prices more vulnerable to being pushed into extreme ranges by passive buy/sell orders; second, funds that experience or witness such cases will actively reduce leverage multiples and shorten holding periods, returning more to lower leverage or spot positions, thus compressing the inflated liquidity in the derivatives market. For Bitcoin and Ethereum's mid-term trends, this deleveraging does not necessarily mean an immediate price drop, but it clearly changes the trading structure: shifting from "high-leverage arbitrage on price differentials" to "defensive configurations to control drawdowns under macro risks."

Risk Appetite Downgrade: From Aggressive Leverage to Defensive Holding

When Bitcoin stood back above $77,000 on May 24, with a 24-hour increase of 2%–3%, the market did not send a signal of "fully taking risks," but rather a forced reallocation completion under risk aversion sentiment. CryptoQuant analysts have qualitatively defined the situation as "risk-averse mode," indicating that the market's tolerance for high leverage and high beta strategies is quickly declining. The "Strategy counterparty" account had all its Ethereum long positions liquidated on the same day while its 40 times Bitcoin short positions were partially liquidated, resulting in an investment return rate dropping to about -73.05%, providing a living sample for this round of deleveraging: under rapidly deteriorating macro conditions and amplified volatility, aggressive leverage is no longer viewed as a tool to "amplify profits," but instead as a liability that easily triggers chain liquidations.

In this downgrade of risk appetite, funding paths begin to rearrange: some funds that originally pursued high-leverage contracts and high beta assets are shifting towards Bitcoin spot or lower-leverage positions, changing the goal from "maximize returns" to "limit drawdowns," and allocations to more volatile assets like Ethereum have also become more restrained. Meanwhile, the demand momentum for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs is significantly weaker than at the peak of 2024–2025, with external agencies’ incremental funds opting for caution, making the competition between exchanges and on-chain funds resemble an "insider game": when prices breach critical levels, liquidations mainly loop between existing leverage rather than being quickly absorbed by new money. This structure ensures that each upward breakout is accompanied by more severe liquidation and drawdown risks, and the so-called rebound at present resembles a repricing process forced by reduced leverage and restructured defensive positions under a gloomy macro environment.

Above the Unconfirmed Rebound: Three Clues to Watch Next

On the price front, Bitcoin attacking $77,000 on May 24, winning a round for the bulls, still falls under Axel Adler Jr.'s framework as an "unconfirmed rebound": the macro environment is described by him as rapidly deteriorating, structural bullish momentum has disappeared, and it’s more like passive repricing under risk-averse conditions. The first clue to watch next is whether the on-chain "Impulse" indicator can again rise above the zero axis—only if this condition is met does it signify a return of structural buying momentum, rather than a rise generated by short-term clearings. The second clue is whether the funding momentum for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs heats up; Axel Adler Jr. points out that the current ETF demand is significantly lower than the peaks of 2024–2025, whether or not high-level inflows occur will directly reflect institutional recognition of this rebound and serve as a key window for judging whether risk appetite shifts from caution to accumulation. The third clue is whether macro risk indicators like the U.S. dollar index, Treasury yields, and VIX can retreat from their stage highs. Once the "macro covering mode" eases, on-chain and ETF positive signals will have the opportunity to be smoothly transmitted to prices. For trading structures, these clues also suggest potential asset differentiation: during risk-averse phases, Bitcoin is more likely to serve as a relatively defensive "core position," while Ethereum and other high beta currencies, as well as high-leverage strategies like "Strategy counterparty," are more prone to being concentrated and squeezed during periods of amplified volatility; the direction of these three clues will determine whether the rebound above $77,000 is just a fleeting occurrence within defensive position restructuring or the starting point of a new cyclical trend.

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