Cryptocurrency Market Performance
Currently, the total market value of cryptocurrencies is $2.55 trillion, with BTC accounting for 59.8%, or $1.52 trillion. The market value of stablecoins is $302.1 billion, increasing by 0.46% in the last 7 days, with USDT representing 60.57%.
Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most increased while some decreased, including: BTC with a 7-day increase of 20.4%, ETH with a 7-day increase of 26.9%, SOL with a 7-day increase of 20.04%, HYPE with a 7-day increase of 29.9%, and ENA with a 7-day increase of 55.2%.
Market Forecast (August 24-30):
The RSI index is 63.8 (neutral), the Fear and Greed Index is 71 (greed), and the Altseason Index is 36 (neutral).
This week's rising market is mainly the result of the combined effects of macro policies, favorable regulatory signals, and factors within the market structure, which have exploded together. Among them, the U.S. Treasury's bond buyback policy and the proactive signals from regulators are the main driving forces, while the liquidation of many short positions has intensified the upward trend.
BTC: $68,000 - $78,000 ($68,000 key support level)
ETH: $2,200 - $2,600 (strong performance; roadmap updates and institutional tokenization narratives are important driving forces)
SOL: $85 - $108 (expected to break through the key resistance level of $108)
HYPE: $55-$60 (extremely strong performance during the rebound)
Risk Alerts:
"Short Squeeze" Natural Correction and Profit Taking
This week's explosive growth is largely driven by the forced liquidation of over $2.7 billion to $2.98 billion in short positions, which is also a rare scale in history. Such a market driven by leverage squeeze may see buying power quickly diminish once the liquidation wave ends. There are numerous short-term profit-taking positions in the market, which could trigger a natural retracement and consolidation at any time.High Leverage in Derivative Markets; Volatility Risks Remain
Despite experiencing massive liquidations, the funding rates and open interest levels in derivative markets such as perpetual contracts may still be elevated. This means the market structure remains fragile, and any negative news could trigger a chain liquidation again, leading to sharp price volatility in both directions.External Pressures from Macroeconomic Policies and the "September Curse"
One of the core drivers of the market rebound is the U.S. Treasury's liquidity move to expand the scale of bond buybacks. However, the macro benefits pushing this rebound have already been digested, and market focus will shift to the U.S. Treasury debt auction and subsequent operations at the end of August. At the same time, the market's expectations for a rate hike in September and the historical "curse" of poor performance in September still exist, which may suppress risk appetite due to macro uncertainties.
Understand Now
1. Bitcoin's Violent Rebound Breaks $70,000 Barrier
Under multiple favorable catalysts, Bitcoin rebounded strongly this week from a low of about $63,000, with a cumulative increase of over 14% in two days, standing above $70,000 for the first time since June and approaching $75,000. As a result, Ethereum also surged nearly 20%, hitting a new three-month high.
2. Largest Short Squeeze in History, $2.7 Billion in Shorts Liquidated
This round of explosive growth triggered one of the largest "short squeezes" in cryptocurrency history. Within 24 hours on Wednesday, approximately $2.7 billion worth of cryptocurrency short positions were forcibly liquidated, with over $1 billion in Bitcoin shorts being cleared in about one hour.
3. U.S. Treasury Increases Bond Buybacks, Serving as Price Catalyst
The U.S. Treasury announced it would double the scale of long-term bond buybacks, significantly lowering long-term Treasury yields and prompting capital to flow from traditional safe-haven assets to risk assets such as Bitcoin. Analysts pointed out that this is “one of the most beneficial policy types” for Bitcoin.
4. Trump Calls White House Crypto Summit, High-profile Support
In the early hours of August 20, Beijing time, Trump met with executives from dozens of cryptocurrency and traditional financial giants, including Coinbase, Ripple, and a16z, at the White House and gave a speech supporting the crypto industry, claiming that he ended the “war on cryptocurrency” once and for all after taking office. This summit was interpreted by the market as a clear signal of regulatory turnaround.
5. CFTC Holds Inaugural Innovation Advisory Committee Meeting
Following the White House summit, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) held its first meeting of the Innovation Advisory Committee (IAC) on August 20. This is the first appearance of the committee after its renaming, with participants including founders of numerous leading projects such as Coinbase, Uniswap, and Polymarket, primarily discussing topics such as crypto regulation, AI, and prediction markets.
6. CFTC Takes a Tough Stance: Will Create Rules If Legislation is Stalled
CFTC Chair Michael Selig made it clear during the meeting that even if Congress fails to pass the “CLARITY Act,” the agency will take proactive steps to introduce market structure regulatory rules for the cryptocurrency industry based on its existing authority and explore the creation of a new “crypto asset market” platform regulated by the CFTC.
7. SEC Proposes New Token Issuance Exemption Regulations
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) proposed a major new regulation this week to exempt certain token issuances from securities regulatory requirements, providing startups with a fundraising pathway of up to $5 million, and establishing a tiered disclosure pathway for larger scale issuances. The SEC Chair stated that this is “the most historically significant step for federal securities law adapting to crypto assets.”
8. The CLARITY Act Enters Critical Legislative Sprint
The core topic of the summit focused on promoting the passage of the “CLARITY Act.” Trump urged Congress to approve a “fair version” by the end of the year. The bill is scheduled for a key procedural vote in the Senate on September 15 and is seen as the last window for successful legislation this year.
9. CME CEO and CFTC Chair Clash Over Prediction Market Regulations
At the CFTC meeting, the CEO of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and the CFTC Chair had a heated debate over the regulation of prediction markets. The CME CEO bluntly stated that some prediction market contracts are easily manipulated, while the CFTC Chair rebutted his comments as “false information.”
10. Frequent Security Incidents: GalaChain Attacked, Binance Employees Detained
GalaChain Security Incident: Due to a security incident worth $2.9 million, GalaChain suspended its cross-chain bridge, with 82% of the affected funds coming from wallets associated with the CEO.
Binance Employee Incident: Two Binance employees were recently detained by police in the UAE and have since been released, but the specific reasons have not been disclosed.
Cyberattack: The U.S. accused Iranian hackers of infiltrating the HBO website and demanding a ransom of $6 million in Bitcoin; also, nearly 2,000 WordPress sites were hacked to steal cryptocurrency wallets.
Macroeconomics
On August 19 at 22:30, the U.S. will announce EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending August 14 of 440.5 million barrels.
On August 20 at 20:30, the U.S. will release initial claims for unemployment benefits for the week ending August 15 of 206,000, lower than the forecast of 210,000.
On August 21, according to CME’s “Fed Watch” data, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in September is currently reported at 64.4%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 35.6%.
Envisioning the Future
Industry Conferences
Bitcoin Hong Kong will be held from August 27 to 28, 2026, in Hong Kong, China.
Bitmain's World Digital Mining Summit “WDMS 2026” will take place from August 27 to 28, 2026, in Hong Kong, China.
The “AI × Web3 Quantitative Trading Meetup: Building Cryptocurrency & U.S. Stock Trading Bots with AI” offline event will be held on August 27 from 6:00 PM to 8:00 PM in Sydney, Australia, at 259 George St, Sydney NSW 2000.
The CYPHER ASIA Crypto Finance Executive Summit will be held on August 28, 2026, from 10:00 AM to 6:00 PM at Cyberport 3, 15F in Hong Kong, featuring guests such as Kong Jianping, CEO and Chairman of Nano Labs, and Zhao Chen, Managing Director of Fosun Wealth Holdings Digital Assets.
Important Events
On August 26 at 20:30, the U.S. will announce the year-on-year Core PCE Price Index for July.
On August 26 at 22:30, the U.S. will announce EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending August 21 (in million barrels).
On August 27 at 20:30, the U.S. will announce initial claims for unemployment benefits for the week ending August 22 (in thousands).
Project Progress
Conflux Network will conduct a v3.1.0 network hard fork upgrade on August 25.
The Zcash community will release the “NU7 Development Direction Vote” proposal, with voting starting on August 25 and lasting approximately 18 days.
BitMEX will officially shut down on September 23, and the official will implement risk limits starting August 26 to prevent users from opening new positions (only reducing positions allowed).
The Avalanche L1 DFK Chain of DeFi Kingdoms will go offline on August 26.
Token Unlocking
SOON (SOON) will unlock 20.35 million tokens on August 23, worth about $4.07 million, accounting for 3.76% of circulation.
Plasma (XPL) will unlock 88.89 million tokens on August 25, worth about $8.35 million, accounting for 3.31% of circulation.
Huma Finance (HUMA) will unlock 450 million tokens on August 26, worth about $9.99 million, accounting for 16.7% of circulation.
Falcon Finance (FF) will unlock 77.14 million tokens on August 29, worth about $5.12 million, accounting for 2.57% of circulation.
About Us
Hotcoin Research, as the core research institution of the Hotcoin Exchange, is dedicated to transforming professional analysis into your practical tools. We analyze market contexts for you through “Weekly Insights” and “In-depth Research Reports”; using our exclusive column “Hotcoin Premium Selection” (double-filtered by AI and experts) to lock in potential assets and lower trial-and-error costs. Every week, our researchers will also engage with you face-to-face through live broadcasts, interpreting hotspots and predicting trends. We believe that warm companionship and professional guidance can help more investors navigate cycles and seize value opportunities in Web3.
Risk Warnings
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investment carries inherent risks. We strongly recommend that investors engage in investments only after fully understanding these risks and within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of their funds.
Website: https://www.hotcoin.com/r/Hotcoinresearch
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