Cryptocurrency Market Performance
Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $2.17 trillion, with BTC accounting for 58.5%, or $1.27 trillion. The market cap of stablecoins is $300.8 billion, having increased by 0.13% in the last 7 days, with USDT accounting for 60.8%.
CoinMarketCap shows that among the top 200 projects, most are up while a small number are down, including: BTC down 1.5% in the last 7 days, ETH down 0.8% in the last 7 days, SOL up 4.3% in the last 7 days, HYPE up 1.8% in the last 7 days, and PUMP up 20% in the last 7 days.
Market Forecast (August 17-23):
The RSI index is at 46.7 (neutral), and the fear and greed index is at 30 (fear), with the altcoin season index at 52 (neutral).
Next week, the market’s main theme is "divergence between funds and sentiment." On one hand, institutional funds (especially Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs) set a weekly record of over $1.1 billion net inflow last week, with giants like BlackRock continuing to buy; but on the other hand, the fear and greed index remains in the "fear" zone, with Coinbase's Bitcoin negative premium lasting 82 days, setting a record for the longest duration. This rare contradiction of "capital inflow but panic sentiment" signifies that the market is at a critical turning point.
BTC: $62,000 - $65,000 (weekly EMA240 provides strong support at $63,500)
ETH: $1,850 - $1,930 (short-term ETF inflows provide price support)
SOL: $74 - $80 (stable above $78 will lead to a breakout)
HYPE: $55-$60 (support at $55)
Risk Warning:
Regulatory Uncertainty: The vote on the CLARITY Act has been postponed to mid-September. If passed, it will significantly improve regulatory expectations and accelerate institutional entry; if it hits a deadlock, policy uncertainty will continue to pressure risk asset valuations.
AI Continues to "Siphon" from Crypto: Market maker GSR points out that one of the core reasons for Bitcoin's momentum stagnation this year is that funds are being massively redirected to AI infrastructure investments. If the AI investment boom does not cool down, the liquidity recovery in the crypto market will remain lagging.
Aftermath of Self-Custody Security Incidents: The Coldcard hardware wallet vulnerability has led to the theft of at least 1,730 BTC (worth over $110 million), which may drive funds from self-custody to compliant custodial and ETF channels in the short term.
Understanding the Present
SEC Tokenized Securities "Innovation Exemption" Suddenly Delayed, Dual Pressure from the White House and Wall Street
The tokenized securities "innovation exemption" that was scheduled to be announced this Friday (August 14) has been temporarily canceled by the SEC. It has been revealed that the White House is concerned that this move will interfere with the legislative process of the "CLARITY Act," which is currently being negotiated in Congress, and the Wall Street lobbying group SIFMA strongly opposes it, arguing that tokenized trading platforms cannot fit into the existing "best execution" rules of the stock market. The resistance imposed by the executive branch and traditional financial giants has stalled the highly anticipated reform.SEC Meeting Canceled Friday, "Reg Crypto" Proposal Vote Stalled
Also canceled was the SEC's public meeting scheduled for this Friday. This meeting was originally planned to discuss the "Reg Crypto" registration exemption plan for crypto token issuers, including mechanisms for providing up to $5 million in financing exemptions over four years for new projects. With the cancellation of the meeting, the vote on this proposal has been shelved, further blurring the timeline for regulatory clarity.Vote on the U.S. CLARITY Act Officially Postponed to September, Regulatory Window Continues
The U.S. Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act into the voting process before August recess, and the vote has been postponed until September. This is a further delay following last week's failure of the Senate to pass the bill. The White House cryptocurrency advisor has blamed the delay on the Democrats, and there is disappointment expressed within the industry.Russian Central Bank Proposes Opening Public Trading of BTC, ETH, USDT with Individual Investor Cap of $3,650 Annually
Under pressure from international sanctions, the Russian Central Bank has officially released a list of recommendations, proposing that Bitcoin, Ethereum, and USDT be allowed to trade publicly on regulated exchanges. To protect non-qualified investors, the annual purchase limit for individual investors is set at approximately $3,650. This marks the first specific regulatory guideline proposed by Russia following President Putin's signing of a new digital currency law on August 4.eToro Q2 Crypto Trading Volume Plummets 73%, but Net Profit Increases by 77%
eToro's Q2 crypto trading volume plummeted 73% year-on-year, with the average investment per trade down 50% to $182. However, benefiting from strategic investments in Zengo, Bit2C, etc., the company's overall net profit actually surged 77% to $53.48 million. This reflects that as retail trading cools, institutional positioning and diversified income have become key to the platform's survival.Bitcoin Narrowly Holds Above $63k, Struggling in the $62,000-$65,000 Range All Week
This week, BTC has repeatedly oscillated in the $62,000-$65,000 range. On August 12, it briefly fell below $63,755, with market sentiment indicators continuously staying in the "fear" zone (fear and greed index at 36). Although a total net inflow of approximately $865 million was recorded for spot ETFs last week, there is about 1.79 million BTC stacked in the $62,000-$65,000 range acting as selling pressure, severely limiting the rebound potential.Long-Short Battle Enters Key Critical Point: $442 million in Long Positions Below $63,351 Face Liquidation
On-chain data reveals the current holding structure's high fragility: once BTC breaks the support level at $63,351, approximately $442 million in long positions on mainstream exchanges will face forced liquidation; conversely, if it breaks above $64,605, about $267 million in short positions will be liquidated, potentially triggering a short squeeze.Binance BTC Reserves Rise to 6-Month High, Supply Tightness Pattern Reversed
CryptoQuant monitoring shows that Bitcoin reserves on the Binance platform have climbed to their highest level in six months, reversing the previously acknowledged tight supply pattern. This change may be due to institutional collateral transfers, market-making activities, among other complex operations, but it still raises market concerns about potential selling pressure.GSR: Core Reason for Market Slowdown is "AI Siphoning from Crypto"
Market maker GSR points out that Bitcoin's momentum stagnation this year is not due to crypto-specific factors, but because funds are being massively redirected to AI infrastructure investments. Large tech companies are raising significant funds through equity issuance for AI data centers and chips, tightening the liquidity environment for all asset classes, including crypto. GSR predicts that if AI investment cools down and the Fed cuts interest rates, the returning liquidity could support a BTC price recovery.Coldcard Security Incident Losses Still Unfolding: At Least 1,730 BTC Confirmed Stolen
The Coldcard hardware wallet-related attack incident that broke out last week is still seeing updated loss figures this week. As of August 11, Galaxy Research confirmed that at least 1,730 BTC have been stolen (valued at over $110 million), with over 5,200 victim addresses. This incident warns: even "cold storage" is not absolutely safe, and the operational risks of self-custody are enlarging with the escalation of attack methods.
Macroeconomics
On August 12, the U.S. July unadjusted CPI annual rate is 3.4%, expected 3.4%, previous value 3.50%.
On August 13, the number of initial jobless claims in the week ending August 8 in the U.S. is 209,000, a new high since the week of July 11, expected 202,000, previous value revised from 199,000 to 200,000.
On August 14, according to CME's "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in September is currently reported at 65.6%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 34.4%.
Foreseeing the Future
Industry Conferences
Coinfest Asia 2026 will be held from August 20 to 21 in Bali, Indonesia.
Bitcoin Hong Kong will take place from August 27 to 28, 2026, in Hong Kong, China.
Important Events
On August 19 at 22:30, the U.S. will announce EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending August 14 (in 10,000 barrels).
On August 20 at 20:30, the U.S. will announce initial jobless claims for the week ending August 15 (in 10,000).
Project Updates
Coinbase will launch US500 stock index perpetual futures on August 17, providing U.S. traders with leveraged derivative exposure based on the overall performance of the U.S. large-cap market. This product will be available on the Coinbase Derivatives platform.
Hashdex will close its Bitcoin ETF DEFI, with the last trading day on August 17.
Japanese convenience store Lawson will conduct a stablecoin point-of-sale payment experiment on August 17 at the Lawson Gate City Osaki Atrium store.
Mesa Devnet upgrade is scheduled for August 19.
The Move-to-Earn project Step App has announced its shutdown and will gradually go offline by August 21.
Token Unlocking
Solv Protocol (SOLV) will unlock 613 million tokens on August 17, valued at approximately $1.35 million, accounting for 12.9% of circulation.
LayerZero (ZRO) will unlock 25.69 million tokens on August 20, valued at approximately $20.22 million, accounting for 4.4% of circulation.
KAITO (KAITO) will unlock 32.59 million tokens on August 20, valued at approximately $13.46 million, accounting for 7.63% of circulation.
About Us
Hotcoin Research serves as the core research institution of the Hotcoin Exchange, dedicated to transforming professional analysis into your practical tool. Through "Weekly Insights" and "In-Depth Research Reports," we analyze market dynamics for you; leveraging our exclusive column "Hotcoin Selection" (AI + Expert Dual Screening), we identify potential assets to reduce trial-and-error costs. Each week, our researchers also engage with you face-to-face through live broadcasts, interpreting hot topics and predicting trends. We believe that warm companionship and professional guidance can help more investors navigate through cycles and seize opportunities in Web3.
Risk Warning
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investments carry risks. We strongly advise investors to invest based on a full understanding of these risks and within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of funds.
Website: https://www.hotcoin.com/r/Hotcoinresearch
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