In the market trends of the past few days, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) have experienced a rebound, with Bitcoin approaching the $64,000-$65,000 area again, and Ethereum briefly rebounding above $1,800.

Many investors are asking: Is this the beginning of a new round of the bull market's main wave, or is it a carefully crafted "short squeeze" trap to attract longs?

Today, we set aside the market noise and conduct a deep analysis of the upcoming market evolution from three dimensions: macroeconomic Federal Reserve policy logic, market chip structure, and practical trading points.

1. Macroeconomic Underlying Logic: "Medium to Long-term Fog" from the Federal Reserve's AI New Framework

On the surface, the market's rebound seems to have injected confidence, but from a macro funding perspective, the medium to long-term suppressive power remains very significant.

1. AI Prosperity and Interest Rate Risks (Change in the Federal Reserve's Core Analytical Framework)

The Federal Reserve has recently officially integrated AI industry explosion into its core analytical framework:

• Transmission Chain: AI infrastructure (computing power, data centers, electricity) explosion → Corporate capital expenditures soar → Supply-side shortages and overheated demand → Raise inflation stickiness → Federal Reserve forced to maintain high rates or even raise rates.
• Key Observation Indicators: If subsequent PCE month-on-month rate is above 0.2%, inflation stickiness is confirmed, and monetary policy will find it hard to relax.

💡 Macro Conclusion: The core driving force behind this round of rise is leveraged speculation and short covering, rather than institutional "bottom-fishing incremental funds." Therefore, under the background of constrained macro liquidity, one must remain clear-minded about the medium to long-term trend and be cautious of ups and downs.

2. Current Market Situation: Bitcoin is Strong, Ethereum is Weak, and Altcoins are Bleeding

1. Severe Structural Differentiation

From recent performance, BTC is significantly stronger than ETH. Currently, BTC's market share still occupies a large portion of the crypto market, with liquidity highly concentrated on Bitcoin.

2. Altcoin "Liquidity Black Hole"

Currently, nearly 40% of altcoins are nearing historical lows or in a state of liquidity exhaustion. Before Bitcoin and Ethereum have truly completed bottoming or breaking out, one should avoid blindly bottom-fishing altcoins. Insufficient liquidity can easily lead to "no-volume downward spirals" or "false breakouts" in altcoins.

💡 Regarding market evolution and operational thoughts, we will summarize some in today's article, and continue to follow the live market with you at eight o'clock tonight to discuss the details!

⏰ Live Time: July 24th 20:00 (Tonight at Eight)

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3. Real Trading Strategies and Key Position Analysis

Since the macro outlook is bearish in the medium and long term, and the short-term market is in a resistance oscillation zone at the daily level, how should we position ourselves?

📍 Key Attacking and Defensive Positions for Ethereum (ETH)

• Key Resistance Area (Short Seller Position): Focus on the 1840 - 1850 area. If it strongly breaks above and stabilizes above 1850 on the 4-hour/day level, short sellers must decisively stop loss and exit.
• Long Target/Upper Supply Area: If it stabilizes above 1850, the first long target is aimed at 1957 - 2021 (daily strong supply area).
• Pullback Buy Point: If a pullback occurs, near 1750 is the short-term support to watch for small position rebound bets.

📍 Key Attacking and Defensive Positions for Bitcoin (BTC)

• Best Shorting Range: Do not chase shorts halfway up. A more prudent short strategy requires waiting for the price to retest the daily previous high in the 66,000 - 67,000 area.
• Long Breakout Target: If Bitcoin stabilizes above 67,500, upward resistance will open towards 71,000 - 73,000.
• Pullback Support: For short-term pullbacks, initially look at 63,400 - 63,600, while a deeper pullback will look towards around 61,500.

4. Trading Mindset and Risk Control Quotes

1. The core of left-side trading is "risk-reward ratio," not "high win rate": The core logic of positioning against the trend (such as shorting at strong resistance) is to use a very small stop-loss space to pursue large segment corrections. Once the direction is correct, what you gain will be cheap chips and a very high risk-reward ratio.

2. Reject blind betting and over-positioning in the same direction: It is strictly forbidden to establish too many derivative positions in the same direction in the account simultaneously. Profitable positions must learn to be timely protected (upper breakeven stop), while losing positions must strictly enforce hard stop losses.

📝 Summary

In the gap between the macro hawkish shadow and the market funding battle, the current rise is more inclined to be a short-squeezing rebound in the oscillation range rather than the start of a one-sided bull market. Investors are advised to be patient, manage positions strictly according to daily resistance/support levels, and remember "do not open positions without stop-loss!"

📌 For more practical strategies and valuable live broadcasts, stay tuned with us!

This session's valuable insights and practical strategies are sourced from the Huiying Community technical exchange live room!

📢 Next live broadcast announcement: Tonight at eight, the teacher will continue to analyze the latest market and chip distribution with everyone!

If your current trading mindset is unclear, don’t know when news might come, or are prone to holding positions leading to liquidation, and want real-time position analysis:

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Let's avoid pitfalls and take fewer detours, achieving stable trading compound interest!

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