Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Asher (@Asher_ 0210)

The 2026 World Cup has ended, and the prediction market is undergoing a phase of evaluation.

Over the past six weeks, many users participated in the trading of match results, advancement scenarios, and championship outcomes through the prediction market, adding another layer of real-time interaction to the viewing experience. Now that the event has concluded, Odaily Planet Daily will review the performance of leading prediction market platforms Kalshi, Polymarket, and predict.fun before, during, and after the World Cup, from the perspectives of trading volume, fee income, and TVL.

The World Cup pushed the trading volume of prediction markets to new highs, but the enthusiasm did not continue

Kalshi maintains the lead, Polymarket narrows the gap, predict.fun breaks out with the World Cup

From the total trading volume of the platforms during the World Cup, Kalshi remains significantly ahead. During the same period, Kalshi's total trading volume reached $54.338 billion, while Polymarket achieved $20.988 billion, with the former approximately 2.6 times that of the latter. However, when solely considering World Cup-related events, the gap quickly narrows, with Kalshi's related trading volume at $13.591 billion and Polymarket reaching $10.356 billion, making the former only about 1.3 times the latter.(Note: The trading volumes discussed in this article are nominal trading volumes.)

In the past, Polymarket's representative markets were mostly centered on the U.S. elections, cryptocurrencies, and geopolitical events. The World Cup drove the importance of sports markets on the platform further, transitioning them from supplementary categories to core trading segments. Kalshi's advantage lies in a more diversified trading structure, allowing it to maintain trading volumes from other sporting events, politics, and macro markets, also providing more opportunities for continued activity after the events conclude.

During the World Cup, predict.fun's total platform trading volume reached $1.092 billion, of which World Cup-related markets contributed $886 million. Although the overall scale still shows a significant gap compared to Kalshi and Polymarket, for a platform that has been online for only a little over six months, generating nearly $900 million in trading volume from this World Cup has already made predict.fun one of the most outstanding new platforms benefiting from this wave of events.

Daily average trading volume changes for the three prediction market platforms before, during, and after the World Cup

Kalshi experienced the most significant increase in trading volume during the World Cup. Its average nominal trading volume in May was $580 million, which rose to $1.393 billion during the event, marking an approximate 140% increase. By July 22, the trading volume fell back to $494.4 million, below the May average level.

Polymarket's changes were similar to Kalshi. Its average nominal trading volume in May was $228 million, which increased to $538 million during the World Cup, marking an approximate 136% increase. By July 22, the trading volume dropped to $180.9 million, also below pre-event levels.

Predict.fun's base was lower, yet the pull from the World Cup remained clear. Its average nominal trading volume in May was $14.7 million, which rose to $28 million during the event, nearly doubling. On July 22, the trading volume was $13.2 million, essentially returning to pre-event levels.

When only comparing the trading volume of a day after the World Cup, the growth brought by the World Cup appears more like a concentrated release of event traffic, failing to maintain a higher level of daily trading volume in the long term. Whether it can be raised again will depend on whether other sporting events and non-sports markets can meet the trading demand following the World Cup conclusion.

How much fee income did the three prediction market platforms generate from the World Cup?

Kalshi's fee income continued to rise with the progress of the schedule, surpassing $100 million in a single week during the fourth week

Kalshi's fee income curve shows a strong upward trend overall. The revenue during the opening phase of four days was $41.4 million, which rose to $64.5 million in the first week, further increased to $82.7 million in the second week, reached $91.3 million in the third week, and peaked in the fourth week at $102.3 million, becoming the highest point during the entire World Cup period, with a slight drop to $91 million during the final week. During the entire World Cup, Kalshi’s cumulative fee income reached $473.2 million.

The World Cup not only brought early attention to Kalshi but, more importantly, sustained the trading enthusiasm into the latter half of the event. Surpassing $100 million in single-week income also means that Kalshi not only enjoyed the World Cup benefits in terms of trading volume but truly converted this flow of traffic into income at the platform monetization level.

Polymarket's fee income is more stable, but there was no accelerated volume increase in the latter half

Polymarket's fee income trend is clearly flatter. The revenue during the opening phase was $6.9 million over four days, which rose to $19.7 million in the first week, followed by $21.3 million, $21.4 million, $20.7 million, and $21.4 million in the second week, third week, fourth week, and final week, respectively. During the entire World Cup, Polymarket's cumulative fee income reached $111.4 million.

Starting from the first week, Polymarket's weekly fee income stabilized around $20 million. While the World Cup did lift Polymarket's fee income to a higher level, the platform did not continue to amplify as the event progressed, unlike Kalshi, but instead operated within a relatively stable range.

Predict.fun's fee income gradually increased with the progression of the event, accumulating $3.48 million over six settlement weeks

Predict.fun's fee income is accounted for by platform settlement weeks, switching cycles every Tuesday at 10 p.m., thus not completely overlapping with the World Cup's natural schedule from June 11 to July 19. The first settlement week was from June 9 to June 16, including two days of pre-match data; the last settlement week was from July 14 to July 21, also including two days of post-match data.

From the income trend, predict.fun's first settlement week fee income was $326,200, followed by three consecutive weeks of growth, peaking at $755,300 from June 30 to July 7, marking the single-week highest value during the World Cup period. The following two weeks recorded $677,800 and $730,200, respectively; although it did not set a new record, it remained significantly higher than during the early phase of the event. During the World Cup, the six settlement weeks accumulated fee income of $348,130.

In the settlement week before the World Cup, from June 2 to June 9, predict.fun's fee income was just $159,400. After entering the World Cup cycle, the first week's income rose to $326,200, marking an approximately 105% increase, followed by most settlement weeks further rising above $500,000. Even though the first and final two periods each included parts of pre-event and post-event data, the World Cup's impact on predict.fun's fee income was still significant.

After the World Cup, the fee income of the three platforms generally declined, with Kalshi experiencing the smallest drop

Kalshi's average daily fee income during the World Cup was $12.13 million, which dropped to $11 million on July 22, a decline of 9.3%. Among the three platforms, Kalshi's post-event drop was the smallest. Its fee income has fallen from the high during the event but still remains close to the average daily level during the World Cup.

Polymarket's decline was more pronounced. Its average daily fee income during the World Cup was $2.86 million, which dropped to $1.7 million on July 22, a decline of 40.5%. The increase in revenue brought to Polymarket by the World Cup was relatively concentrated, and following the conclusion of the event, this portion of the increase quickly receded.

Predict.fun's average daily fee income during the World Cup was about $83,000, which dropped to $53,000 on July 22, a decline of 36.1%, which is close to the drop seen with Polymarket. Although the measurement criteria differ slightly from the first two platforms, the post-event trend remains clear, indicating that the World Cup's impact on predict.fun's fee income was also significant, with a quick drop following the end of the event.

The World Cup did not increase Polymarket's TVL, while predict.fun saw an inflow of funds in the latter half of the event

Polymarket's TVL did not rise alongside its trading volume during the World Cup. At the beginning of May, the platform's TVL was approximately $410 million, which mainly fluctuated between $440 million and $480 million for most of the time. After the World Cup commenced, the TVL continued to oscillate around this level. Although it briefly peaked at the end of June and early July, it did not form a sustained upward trend.

After mid-July, the TVL started to noticeably decline, dropping to around $400 million by the end of the World Cup, and has now further decreased to about $340 million. While trading volume significantly increased during the event, the capital held by the platform has continued to decrease post-event, indicating that the World Cup generated more high-frequency trading demands without translating into long-term retained funds.

Predict.fun's trend is more phase-specific. At the beginning of May, its TVL was approximately $20 million, which dropped to about $10 million in mid-May, and then maintained around $15 million until mid-June. The TVL did not immediately rise at the start of the World Cup but began to rapidly recover in early July, reaching the range of $20 million to $25 million in the latter half of the event, peaking around the conclusion of the World Cup.

After the event ended, the TVL gradually retreated, currently standing at around $17 million, yet still above the low point in late June. Compared to Polymarket, the changes in predict.fun's capital are more closely tied to the World Cup progress, especially the clearer inflow of funds during the knockout stages.

(Note: Due to the inability to obtain TVL data from Kalshi on-chain, this section only discusses Polymarket and predict.fun.)

Conclusion

The World Cup indeed brought considerable trading volume and fee income to the prediction market, but post-event data also indicate that this growth did not continue naturally. The daily average trading volume and fee income of the three platforms declined after the event, and Polymarket's TVL continued to decrease. Major events can significantly amplify trading demand in the short term, but they do not necessarily elevate the long-term activity level of the platform.

However, the World Cup benefits do not remain solely in short-term data. It at least validated that sporting events can continuously provide high-frequency, short-cycle trading scenarios for the prediction market and also helped more users develop the habit of repeated trading through consecutive matches.

The World Cup has concluded, but the competition surrounding user retention, market supply, and normalized trading has only just begun.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。