This round has preemptively laid out quite a bit of $TSLA stock, making it my largest position at the moment. As we all know, my team and I are very optimistic about the explosion in the humanoid robot sector in the second half of the year. As the physical embodiment of AI, it is a sector that has not yet exploded, and Tesla, as the ace 🃏 in this track, has become the core of our bets. But when the financial report came out, the decline was still painful!

However, after thoroughly studying the financial report, I actually feel that the current stock price adjustment is a great opportunity for positioning!

From the financial report, it is already evident that Tesla is accelerating its transformation. While the old core business of "selling cars" is under pressure, the new core business of "energy storage + FSD" is just catching up and is growing rapidly. Furthermore, the future "Robotaxi + Optimus" will be the new growth point that creates a $5 trillion market value core!

Let’s first look at the revenue. Tesla delivered a decent revenue report in Q2. Revenue reached $28.236 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate exceeding 20%, marking the highest growth rate in three years. The total revenue over the past 12 months has historically surpassed the $100 billion mark. The number of vehicle deliveries reached a new high for Q2, service business surged by 50%, and FSD subscription users exceeded 1.48 million. Even though capital expenditures doubled, resulting in free cash flow turning negative for the first time in two years, its performance still exceeded the most pessimistic market expectations, as shown in 👇 Figure 1.

However, Wall Street chose to sell off after hours, with the stock price once dropping over 5%. The reason is simple: this is a typical financial report with strong revenue but weak profits. Gross margin fell to 16.8% (below the expected 19.4%), operating profit was only $398 million (less than a third of expectations), and EPS directly fell short by 35%.

Wall Street saw the pressure on short-term profit margins, but if we only view Tesla as an automotive manufacturer with fluctuating profits from a single vehicle, that is a classic case of seeing the trees but missing the forest. From my perspective, the current short-term panic in the market provides an excellent opportunity for a downbeat entry. 🧐

1️⃣ First, let’s talk about what Wall Street is panicking about.

The logic behind Wall Street's sell-off of Tesla's Q2 performance is quite straightforward: although the scale has been expanded, operational leverage has not been released.

Declining revenue per vehicle, ongoing price wars, combined with concentrated releases of R&D and computing power, directly squeezed profit margins. Management clearly mentioned in the financial report that the company is at the largest and most exciting investment phase, and that capital expenditures will remain high over the next two to three years, exceeding $25 billion this year.

This is currently where the short-term contradictions of the capital market lie, and it is also the reason for the after-hours sell-off. Wall Street wants ready cash flow and certainty in profit margins, while Musk wants to lock in a physical monopoly on humanoid robots and autonomous driving through aggressive capital expenditures.

Look, in order to bring the Coterx 2 supercomputer (with over 115MW of computing power) online at the Texas Gigafactory and to suspend the Fremont factory's Model S/X production lines to fully transform the first-generation Optimus production line, all these upfront investments will directly reflect in the current income statement. The investment in AI autonomous driving and physical robots is upfront and capital-intensive, while the commercialization monetization is delayed and exponential. Wall Street naturally sees that the efficiency of converting every dollar of revenue into profit is too low; however, from the perspective of long-term investors, this is precisely Tesla accumulating momentum for the next leap.

2️⃣ The real highlight: the commercialization explosion point of Robotaxi and Optimus.

I believe the most noteworthy aspect of Tesla's financial report is definitely not the short-term gross margin, but the execution power Tesla has shown in rapidly transforming in robotics and autonomous driving.

• Robotaxi: Moving from narrative to commercial implementation.

In Q2, Tesla not only expanded its unmonitored Robotaxi operation area in Austin, Texas, but also launched an unmonitored ride service in Miami, Orlando, and Tampa in July, allowing employees to experience Cybercab at the Texas Gigafactory. More importantly, the number of FSD subscription users increased by 56% year-on-year to 1.48 million, exceeding expectations by nearly 6%.

This marks that Tesla is completing the transformation from pure hardware sales to a commercial model of hardware + mobility services + software subscriptions. Once regulatory and technical boundaries are fully opened in the next 12-18 months, the marginal cost of the Robotaxi fleet will bring incredible cash flow elasticity, at which point the volatility of gross margins from whole vehicle sales will become trivial.

• Optimus: The ChatGPT moment in humanoid robotics is about to arrive.

The market seriously underestimates the strategic significance of suspending the Model S/X production lines at the Fremont factory to reconstruct the first generation Optimus production line. This indicates that Optimus has crossed the laboratory stage and officially entered the closed loop of mass production and real-world data collection.

The potential market size for humanoid robots is in the tens of trillions of dollars, far exceeding that of the automotive market. By combining the mass manufacturing engineering capability of automotive manufacturing, the powerful computing power of Cortex 2, and the embodied intelligence algorithms trained by FSD, Tesla is almost the only company in the world that can genuinely implement the mass production of general-purpose humanoid robots. Once large-scale production is achieved in 2026, the valuation space granted to Tesla by Optimus will be several times its current value.

3️⃣ Final thoughts: The merger of Tesla and SpaceX will likely be a high-probability event.

When we gather information and assess the long-term value of Tesla, there is one significant logic that can easily be overlooked but has a very high probability: the potential merger and ecosystem deep restructuring between Tesla and SpaceX, which will be a huge potential positive!

Whether it is from Musk's comprehensive layout on AI computing power, energy, communication, and embodied intelligence, or from the perspective of technological intersections for future commercialization, the integration of these two giants is almost an inevitable trend:

• Computing power and energy closed-loop: SpaceX's Starlink provides global low-latency communication with no blind spots, which naturally complements Tesla's Robotaxi fleet and globally distributed storage.

• Materials and manufacturing synergy: SpaceX’s engineering experience in top materials science, such as rocket-grade stainless steel and heat-resistant materials used in Starship, as well as ultra-lightweight manufacturing, is directly benefiting Optimus and Cybercab.

• Capital and strategic planning: Musk has repeatedly expressed his intention to integrate his AI, space, and hard technology assets. If Tesla and SpaceX deepen their binding or merge at the capital level in the future, then Tesla will no longer be merely a car & AI & robot company but will evolve into the ultimate hard tech empire controlling Earth's and near-Earth space infrastructure. This potential positive can not only thoroughly unlock valuation ceilings but also provide shareholders with unprecedented asset defense strength and premium space.

So, in conclusion, we believe Tesla is currently undervalued in the short term but represents a huge gold mine in the long term, making it an excellent opportunity for positioning! 🧐

On the eve of large-scale commercialization of autonomous driving and robots, the current drop in Tesla's price theoretically cannot define it as a collapse of fundamentals, but rather as a cognitive time lag between the upfront investment period and the high return period. The automotive business has maintained an extremely solid base and cash inflow, while what truly determines the future $5 trillion market value attribution of Tesla—Robotaxi and Optimus—is accelerating, which is the key!

For investors who understand this overall perspective, the current correction is merely a discount chip served up by the market once again. 📊🧐

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