This World Cup, I fell from being the number one "Planet Oracle" to having my points reset to zero.

During this World Cup, I participated in the points activity of @okxchinese, and at my best, I earned nearly 20,000 points, maintaining the top position as "Planet Oracle" for a long time. However, as the competition progressed from the group stage to the knockout stage, my points saw a significant drop, and by the end of the final match, I only had a little over 700 points left.

If this were money, I could say I went from 3,000 to 20,000 and then back down to 700. How did I lose it?

Many friends said it must be ALL IN, but that's not entirely true. As I mentioned before, my buying strategy was completely based on the predicted market's win rates, buying the one with the highest win rate, which allowed me to make profits in the early stages, at least during the group matches. For someone like me who doesn’t watch or understand football, I felt it was quite impressive.

My buying method during the group stage was based on high win rates, investing 3,000 XP, and buying 500 of each high win rate team. I calculated that I only lost two or three times in all the group matches; most others were wins. I even bought some matches with win rates just above 50% and won those as well.

As the matches decreased, the most significant change was that the predicted win rates rarely reached 80% to 90%. I remember vividly that several matches had win rates around 30% to 40%, which was already the highest. I began to lose a lot of XP from that point onwards.

In other words, my wins were due to the high win rate expectations being quite accurate. Although this part earned less, it indeed brought an average return of over 20%. It might not seem like much, but during the group stage, this accumulated to almost a 7-fold return. As long as the funding is sufficiently diversified and not heavily invested in one event, the chances of making money are quite high.

However, as the divergence increased, uncertainty grew, and the requirements for professionalism became stronger, relying on the market-given win rates was essentially no different from gambling. That's just one aspect.

The second aspect is the conspiracy theory. Behind such large-scale events, there is no shortage of betting companies’ gambits. I won't dwell on the details, but it's projected that in the 2026 World Cup, total funding will reach at least tens of billions of dollars. Historically, there have been several controversial cases that appeared to involve betting companies.

However, it cannot be denied that legitimate betting companies do not profit from match-fixing; upsets often lead to losses for these companies, yet the entire ecosystem, especially the illegal parts, remains a hidden danger. When the funding amount is overly massive, indeed there can be individuals or groups that might resort to some unscrupulous actions, such as in this year’s battle for third and fourth place, although perhaps not under the control of betting companies, I heard from many friends that it was about mutual benefit exchange.

When there is profit exchange and demand for interests, there tends to be capital or certain forces taking advantage of the situation.

This also warns friends that in forecasting markets, when the involved funds are smaller, the accuracy of high win rates tends to be higher. Diversifying investments into high win rates is akin to earning annual returns; although low, they are relatively stable. Of course, the premise is diversification—just avoid going ALL IN every time you see a 95% win rate.

Once the funds involved become excessive, a 90% win rate and a 10% win rate may very well be 50% against 50%. When truly facing a 50% against 50%, the outcome might genuinely be left to fate.

By the way, this time’s #OKX activity was great; I heard that over 430,000 friends participated, giving out nearly 4.2 million in rewards with up to 136 million on-chain transactions.

If it weren't for this event, I probably wouldn't have participated at all. I have a very low risk tolerance; I know a bit about betting, but I rarely engage in it myself. Since childhood, I've never believed I had "lottery" luck, so my obsession with making money has always been based on high certainty.

This World Cup betting experience has allowed me to recognize myself again. High certainty can indeed lead to profits, although they may not be substantial, they are still profits. And once the situation turns into low certainty, my best option is to withdraw.

Of course, this only applies to myself.

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