The data for PPI tonight is also good, similar to the CPI data, both significantly below expectations, with month-on-month rates turning negative, indicating that the impact of oil is beginning to fade, and the core PPI data is also below expectations; essentially, the core PCE data should be good.

Yesterday, Trump also TACO, now we are looking at the oil price issues caused by the geopolitical conflict between the U.S. and Iran; if oil prices fall back below $80, inflation is very likely to continue to decline.

In simple terms, as long as Trump and Iran do not cause trouble, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in 2026 is hard to say, but raising rates is unlikely.

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