1. Core news on July 14

1. Macroeconomic bearish factors dominate the market (core reasons for decline)

1. Federal Reserve officials release hawkish comments, increasing the probability of a rate hike at the end of July to 45%, with expectations for two rate hikes by the end of the year reaching 56%; the actual yield of 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rises, the dollar strengthens, and non-interest-bearing crypto assets continue to be under pressure.

2. U.S. CPI inflation data will be released tonight; if inflation is higher than expected, it will further raise rate hike expectations, likely leading to a deep decline in the market; if the data is weak, a short-term correction window may open.

3. Tomorrow, Federal Reserve Chairman Waller will attend a Congressional hearing, and the market will closely monitor interest rate comments; overly hawkish statements will trigger a sell-off across the board.

2. Geopolitical situation continues to escalate

The U.S. military has initiated blocking control in the Strait of Hormuz, increasing confrontation between the U.S. and Iran, causing a rise in crude oil prices and inflation concerns, creating a bearish chain of "rising oil prices → rising inflation → tightening by the Federal Reserve"; the U.S. Treasury has seized $1 billion in Iranian crypto assets, leading to a flight of hedge funds from altcoins.

3. Industry funds and on-chain dynamics

1. BTC spot ETF ends 8 weeks of continuous outflows, showing small net inflows as institutions hoard coins gradually; Binance's reserve proof shows BTC user positions are increasing against the trend, while ETH and USDT are decreasing, indicating a preference for bitcoin as a safe haven.

2. In the last 24 hours, long positions in the entire network were liquidated for $253 million, with over 60,000 people being liquidated, leading to a concentrated release of short-term long position pressure; the Fear and Greed index remains at 24, indicating extreme fear.

3. The U.S. CLARITY crypto bill has entered a critical review window in Congress, with no short-term favorable developments, and regulatory uncertainty dampening bullish confidence.

4. Overall market data

The global cryptocurrency market cap is $2.15 trillion, shrinking by over $20 billion in 24 hours; current price of BTC is $62,400, down 2.18% in 24 hours; current price of ETH is $1,765, down 2.3%; current price of SOL is $74.2, down over 2.7%, with high-beta coins leading the decline.

2. General judgment of the market

The current market is in a weak oscillation under bearish resonance, with the daily mid-term downward structure unbroken, trading volume shrinking, and rebounds lacking volume. The short-term trend is completely tied to the CPI data tonight, with operations focusing on short positions during rebounds, and low longs only for light trading to enter and exit quickly, strictly prohibiting heavy positions.

3. BTC Bitcoin | Entry points + trading strategy

Technical aspect
The 4-hour moving average is in a bearish arrangement, and MACD bearish momentum continues; the upper range of 63,200-63,500 presents short-term strong selling pressure, while 61,300 is a mid-term lifeline; falling below opens direct downside space to the 60,000 level.

Key price levels

• Daytime resistance: 63,200-63,500 (first pressure), 64,200 (strong pressure)
• Daytime support: 61,800-62,000 (short-term support), 61,300 (bull-bear divide), 60,000 (strong support)

1. Short positions (preferred idea)
Entry range: 63,100-63,400 for gradual shorting on bounce stagnation
Stop loss: above 63,900
Take profit target: 62,200 → 61,500

2. Short-term long positions (light trading only for rebound after a decline)
Entry range: 61,300-61,800 for stability with a bullish close
Stop loss: below 61,000
Take profit target: 62,600 → 63,100

4. ETH Ethereum | Entry points + trading strategy

Technical aspect
The movement continues to be weaker than BTC, with the 50-day moving average at 1,756 forming short-term support, and heavy selling pressure above the 1,800 level; low on-chain activity, funds continue to shift to BTC, with a lack of independent upward catalysts and a full linkage to the overall market's weakness.

Key price levels
• Daytime resistance: 1,790-1,805 (first pressure), 1,840 (strong pressure)
• Daytime support: 1,750-1,760 (short-term support), 1,700 (mid-term defensive position)

1. Short positions
Entry range: 1,790-1,800 for pressure layout of short positions
Stop loss: above 1,845
Take profit target: 1,755 → 1,710

2. Short-term long positions
Entry range: 1,745-1,760 for light long after a decline
Stop loss: below 1,700
Take profit target: 1,785 → 1,800

5. SOL Solana | Entry points + trading strategy

Technical aspect
High Beta and high volatility asset, short-term moving averages are all turning downwards, and the bearish trend is clear; 75.8 serves as short-term psychological support, and falling below increases downside space, with very weak rebound strength, positions must be tightly controlled, not suitable for heavy operations.

Key price levels

• Daytime resistance: 76.8-77.5 (first pressure), 79.2 (strong pressure)
• Daytime support: 74.8-75.5 (short-term support), 73 (strong support)

1. Short positions (first choice)
Entry range: 76.5-77.3 for shorting on bounce pressure
Stop loss: above 79.3
Take profit target: 75.2 → 73.8

2. Short-term long positions (very small position betting)
Entry range: 73.5-75 for stability with light longs
Stop loss: below 72.8
Take profit target: 76 → 77

6. General risk control operation reminders
1. The evening CPI data is the biggest turning point for today; reduce positions by 50% before the data is released to avoid significant losses from spikes;
2. SOL's volatility is far greater than BTC/ETH; the position in a single asset should not exceed 10% of total funds, and mainstream assets should be controlled within 20%;
3. If BTC effectively falls below 61,300, all bullish positions should be abandoned, exit and observe, waiting for stability signals.
[Invitation to join the crypto circle group]
1. 📢 24-hour live classes + 15 experienced analysts
2. 💸 Zero fees throughout, Binance, OKEx, BG, highest commission returns, with at least 70% rewards for ANB
3. Trading department | solving various trading doubts and unfreezing issues
4. 📈 Real-time trading courses | closely follow market rhythms, hands-on practical teaching
Live 24 hours via Tencent Meeting: 886-845-9215

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。