Written before the release of today's CPI data

Yesterday's pullback in the US stock market, aside from the adjustment in the AI sector, likely also includes risk aversion due to the CPI being released today.

Theoretically speaking, the expectations for this CPI data are still fine. For instance, the previous value for the broad CPI was 4.2%, the market forecast is 3.8%, and the Cleveland Fed's prediction is 3.7%. This data indicates that the overall inflation expectations are trending downward.

More importantly, the core inflation previous value is 2.9%, the market forecast is 2.9%, and the Cleveland Fed's prediction is 2.8%. From the predicted values, the change in core inflation is not significant; considering that actual oil prices have already decreased, the probability that core inflation data at least remains unchanged is quite high.

However, the problem is that the US and Iran are at it again, and not only has Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, but the US, aside from using military force to suppress, also wants to impose a 20% tax on the value of goods passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

Although many friends believe this is just a bluff from Trump, the market believes it; Brent has risen to $85, and WTI has approached $80, which completely disrupts the market's judgment on oil trends. Although there have always been small skirmishes between the US and Iran, the market thinks that peace and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz remain the larger premise.

But this time, the drop in CPI might end up being lonely, as returning to full-scale war or the US taxing the Strait of Hormuz could lead the market to expect inflation to rise again in August.

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