Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Asher (@Asher_ 0210)
After the placement of the top 8 in the World Cup, the real knockout stage has just begun.
France has maintained a strong team status all the way, with stable offensive firepower and always someone stepping up at critical moments; Morocco continues its underdog spirit, eliminating Canada 3:0 in the round of 16, proving once again that it is not a flash in the pan. Spain played the sturdiest, with disciplined defense and dominating possession, securing a last-minute victory over Portugal in the round of 16, keeping Cristiano Ronaldo outside the top 8; Belgium restored its presence on the offensive end with a 4:1 victory over the USA.
On the other hand, Norway became the biggest surprise of this tournament, with Haaland leading the team to a 2:1 elimination of Brazil, creating the most shocking upset of the knockout stage; although England faced challenges, they still relied on squad depth to narrowly defeat Mexico 3:2. Argentina's advancement was the most dramatic, coming from 0:2 down against Egypt to complete a 3:2 comeback; Switzerland dragged Colombia into a penalty shootout, advancing to the top 8 in the most typical "hard-nosed" manner.
To provide references for the upcoming 4 quarterfinal prediction events, Iasked ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, DeepSeek, Qianwen, and Grok to predict the outcome, score of each match, and whether it would go into extra time or penalties.
From the results, the AIs were consistent about the advancement direction in the 4 quarterfinals, with the final four being predicted as France, Spain, England, and Argentina. The real divergence mainly appeared in the details of scores, extra time, and penalties.
AIs Predict France Advancement, Morocco Difficult to Replicate Underdog Miracle
The first quarterfinal match of this World Cup is France against Morocco, scheduled for 4 AM Beijing time on July 10.According to predict.fun data, during regular time, France has a 63% chance of winning; the probability of a draw is 25%; Morocco's chance of victory is 14%. Moreover, including extra time and penalties, France has a 79% chance of advancing, while Morocco has a 22% chance.
This is also the match with the smallest divergence among the 4 quarterfinals according to AI models. ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, DeepSeek, Qianwen, and Grok all favor France's advancement, differing only in whether France will win 2:0 or 2:1, and whether Morocco can score a goal.
Claude and Qianwen both predicted a 2:0 victory for France. They believe that France is the team closest to the championship template in this tournament, with attackers like Mbappé, Dembélé, and Ousmane creating continuous pressure, while midfielders such as Kanté, Tchouaméni, and Rabiot support both ends of attack and defense more completely than Morocco. Although Morocco has proven it is not an ordinary underdog, the depth of its lineup and individual capabilities are still hard to compete with France directly.
DeepSeek, Gemini, Grok, and ChatGPT lean more toward a 2:1 victory for France. Their judgment is that Morocco won't be easily breached and still has opportunities to create threats through counterattacks, set pieces, or wing advancements. However, the problem lies in Morocco's difficulty in continuously limiting France's offensive highlights for 90 minutes. Once the game enters the second half, France's individual skills and bench depth will become increasingly evident.
Overall, AI models unanimously agree that France will advance in regular time, with little need for extra time or penalties.
AIs More Confident in Spain, Belgium's Counterattack the Only Variable
The second quarterfinal match of this World Cup is Spain against Belgium, scheduled for 3 AM Beijing time on July 11.According to predict.fun data, during regular time, Spain has a 61% chance of winning; the probability of a draw is 25%; Belgium's chance of winning is 17%. Additionally, including extra time and penalties, Spain has a 79% chance of advancing, while Belgium has a 22% chance.
In this match, all 6 AI models also favor Spain's advancement, but the divergence in the match process is more pronounced than in France against Morocco.
Claude, Qianwen, DeepSeek, and Grok all believe that Spain will likely resolve the match within regular time, predicting scores concentrated around 2:0 or 2:1. Their core reasoning is that Spain currently has a stronger overall cohesion, with stable possession, pressing, and defensive discipline. The tempo of the match is likely controlled by Spain.
ChatGPT's prediction is more conservative, favoring a narrow 1:0 victory for Spain. It believes that this match won't turn into a back-and-forth battle, but rather resemble a contest between "system stability" and "offensive explosiveness." Spain may not score heavily, but they are more likely to win through ball possession, wing changes, or a single set piece opportunity.
The only prediction suggesting extra time and penalties comes from Gemini. It predicts a 1:1 draw in regular time, with no change in the score during extra time, and ultimately Spain advancing through a penalty shootout. The key to this prediction is if Belgium can seize a counter-attack opportunity to score first, Spain could be dragged into a more exhausting and tense match.
The Match with the Greatest AI Disagreement, Haaland the Biggest Challenge for England
The third quarterfinal match of this World Cup is Norway against England, scheduled for 5 AM Beijing time on July 12.According to predict.fun data, during regular time, Norway has a 23% chance of winning; the probability of a draw is 27%; England's chance of winning is 53%. Additionally, including extra time and penalties, Norway has a 36% chance of advancing, while England has a 66% chance.
Haaland's presence makes this knockout match the one most likely to produce an upset among the 4 quarterfinals. Although all 6 AIs ultimately voted for England’s advancement, predictions are clearly not as certain as in the previous two matches. Norway eliminated Brazil 2:1 in the last round, so it’s no longer a question of whether they can cause an upset, but they have just accomplished one. More importantly, a player like Haaland doesn't need to dominate the whole match; just one opportunity could drag England into trouble.
Qianwen, DeepSeek, and Grok all believe that England will likely win 2:1 in regular time. England’s squad depth is better, with Bellingham, Kane, Saka, and Foden capable of deciding the match. In contrast, Norway's attack relies more on the connection between Haaland and Ødegaard; once this link is severed, Norway's attacking threat will significantly decrease.
However, Claude, Gemini, and ChatGPT clearly factor in the possibility of extra time. Claude believes England might narrowly win in regular time or could be dragged into extra time by Norway; Gemini predicts a 2:2 draw in regular time, with England securing victory in extra time due to bench depth; ChatGPT predicts a 1:1 score after 90 minutes, with England winning 2:1 in extra time.
AIs Favor Argentina's Advancement, Switzerland May Drag the Match to Penalty Shootout
The fourth quarterfinal match of this World Cup is Argentina against Switzerland, scheduled for 9 AM Beijing time on July 12.According to predict.fun data, during regular time, Argentina has a 58% chance of winning; the probability of a draw is 28%; Switzerland's chance of victory is 17%. Additionally, including extra time and penalties, Argentina has a 74% chance of advancing, while Switzerland has a 27% chance.
In this match, the AIs unanimously believe Argentina will advance. Unlike the stronger team suppression predictions for France and Spain, Argentina's match against Switzerland feels more like a test of patience.
Qianwen and Gemini provided the most optimistic predictions, favoring Argentina to win 2:0 in regular time. After Argentina came back from 0:2 down against Egypt to win 3:2 in the last round, the team's state and morale have been restored. Against a Switzerland team that does not have strong offensive firepower, Argentina just needs to minimize errors in the backfield to have a chance of solving the match within 90 minutes.
DeepSeek and Grok were more cautious, leaning towards a 2:1 victory for Argentina. Switzerland has a stable defensive organization and strong discipline, making it difficult for Argentina to easily penetrate. However, the problem is that Switzerland lacks the ability to exert sustained pressure in attack; once Argentina scores first, Switzerland will find it difficult to regain control of the match tempo for long.
Expecting extra time and penalties are Claude and ChatGPT. Claude believes that an opponent like Switzerland can easily lead Argentina into a hard-fought battle, predicting a 1:1 score entering extra time, eventually determined by a penalty shootout. ChatGPT directly predicts Argentina advancing via penalties, believing Switzerland has the ability to reduce the match to a low-scoring war of attrition, dragging it until the end before competing in goalkeeper skills and penalty quality.
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