Today's focus is on the US stock market and Iran being in conflict again. I haven't looked at oil prices for a long time, but I'm starting to watch WTI again and it feels quite familiar. In the afternoon, the price of WTI had already reached around 72 dollars. This is not the best time to short, firstly because the price is still relatively low, and secondly, because it's not yet US trading hours, the escalation of the war hasn't caused panic among European and American investors.

So by the time the European stock market opened in the afternoon, the price of WTI began to rise, and after the US market opened, it almost surged to 76 dollars. I executed my short position at 75 dollars. My stance on this rise remains consistent. If the US truly intends to be tough, it could directly block the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian ports without needing to wait until July 17 to execute this. We have seen too many instances of this since Trump took office.

Although it's not possible to say with 100% certainty that Trump will take drastic action, the additional ten days is likely meant for a third party to mediate between the US and Iran. Neither Iran nor the US want to see a wider war. The US knows it can't resolve a theocratic state as quickly as Venezuela. Even if Iran is severely weakened, the subsequent retaliation from Iran would embarrass Trump and the Republican party in the midterm elections.

Iran is also very aware that no matter how fierce the rhetoric may be, if the US acts firmly, Iran would not gain any advantages. Even with a population ready to fight, it would still be difficult to conclude matters. Especially since the previous blockade of the Strait of Hormuz had already sparked widespread anger. This time, the US's actions were also because of the Strait of Hormuz; Iran benefitted significantly from its position there and does not want to back down.

The war has caused the US stock market to fall, also dragging down cryptocurrencies like bitcoin:native a bit. However, if my estimates are correct, mediation between Iran and the US will continue, and market recovery is just a matter of time, especially since Trump has repeatedly assured that oil prices will recover quickly, indicating he does not genuinely want to enter a prolonged conflict.

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