1. Market rebound: Bitcoin broke through 61,000 USD during the day, with a daily increase of 4.22%, driving cryptocurrency concept stocks to strengthen in after-hours trading, with Strategy rising over 3%, and Circle and BMNR rising over 1%.

2. Regulatory progress: The "Virtual Asset Service Act" in Taiwan was passed in the third reading, building a complete compliance regulatory framework covering exchanges and stablecoin issuers, clarifying licensing requirements, reserve requirements, and criminal responsibilities; the EU has simultaneously implemented related regulatory rules, increasing certainty in industry regulation.

3. Institutional dynamics: Citigroup has lowered its 12-month Bitcoin price forecast from 112,000 USD to 82,000 USD, and Ethereum from 3,175 USD to 2,240 USD; Morgan Stanley has submitted applications for Bitcoin and Solana ETFs, expanding compliant investment vehicles.

4. Capital flow: Over the past three weeks, Bitcoin spot ETF funds have cumulatively flowed out more than 4.21 billion USD, indicating overall weak spot demand; during the same period, XRP ETF recorded net inflows, showing structural capital diversion characteristics.

5. Macroeconomic aspect: The Bank of England is advancing plans to limit hedge fund leverage, which may indirectly affect liquidity in the highly leveraged crypto market.

II. Overall market overview

The current market is in a phase of oversold rebound, with Bitcoin stabilizing first and driving market recovery, but overall incremental funds are limited, and sector rotation characteristics are obvious. Bitcoin shows relative resilience, while Ethereum's continuous ETF redemptions show weak performance, and Solana demonstrates stronger elasticity based on ETF expectations.

III. Market analysis and strategy

1. BTC (Bitcoin)

Current situation: The price has risen above 61,000 USD, forming a phase bottom structure at the 4-hour level, with bullish divergence signals in the weekly chart, but still within a descending channel on the daily level, defining the rebound as a repair market.

Key price levels:
• Support: 59,500-60,000 USD (short-term bullish-bearish dividing line), 57,400 USD (strong support/stop-loss level)
• Resistance: 64,000-64,500 USD, 67,000 USD
Operational strategy reference:
• Short-term: A light position can be taken to gamble on a rebound in the 59,500-60,500 USD range, with a stop-loss below 57,400 USD; the first target is 64,000 USD, and the second target is 67,000 USD.
• Medium-term: Do not confirm a trend reversal until effectively stabilizing above 68,000 USD; if rebounding to above 63,000 USD, positions can be gradually reduced.
• Position suggestion: Keep overall control within 30%, avoiding chasing highs.

2. ETH (Ethereum)
Performance is significantly weaker than Bitcoin, with continuous net outflows from the ETF forming core pressure; technical indicators are in a phase of overselling, indicating a demand for technical rebound, but lacking incremental funds makes it difficult to form a reversal market.

Key price levels:
• Support: 1,550 USD, 1,500 USD (annual lifeline)
• Resistance: 1,650 USD, 1,700-1,710 USD
Operational strategy reference:
• Short-term: Steady long positions can be arranged in the 1,600-1,605 USD range, with a stop-loss below 1,595 USD; take profit targets sequentially at 1,625 and 1,638 USD, exiting when encountering resistance at highs.
• Bearish thought: If rebounding to around 1,700 USD, light positions can be taken to short, with a stop-loss above 1,760 USD, targeting 1,600 USD.



3. SOL (Solana)
This major currency has strong elasticity in this round of rebound, catalyzed by expectations of Morgan Stanley's ETF application submission; a 4-hour level wedge pattern has formed, suggesting a high probability of corrective rebound.

Key price levels:
• Support: 68-70 USD (neckline/strong support), 60 USD
• Resistance: 78 USD, 92 USD
Operational strategy reference:
• Buy on dips: Gradually build positions in the 68-72 USD range, with a stop-loss below 65 USD; the first target is 92 USD, and the second target is 105 USD.
• Holders: If the neckline at 68 USD is effectively broken, reduce positions to avoid risk; taking profits on partial positions can be done in the 76-80 USD range upon rebound.
• Risk point: Altcoin attributes are strong; when the overall market weakens, the decline may surpass that of major currencies, requiring good risk control.

IV. Summary and risk warning
The current market is in an oversold repair window, with Bitcoin stabilizing as the core premise of the market. The approach should primarily focus on short-term rebound strategies, strictly setting stop-losses, and not blindly bottom-fishing. It is crucial to monitor the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trends, ETF capital flows, and regulatory policy changes; any macroeconomic negative news could end the rebound market.
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