The United States expects there is an 80%-85% chance that an agreement with Iran will be signed, and Trump believes that the deal with Iran could be signed this weekend or on Monday. From all the current information, the likelihood of a comprehensive and complete ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran is quite high; however, whether the three parties— the U.S., Iran, and Israel—can truly sit quietly and await peace is hard to say.

It has probably been nearly four months since Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has caused a significant rise in global inflation, which is the main driving force behind the reconciliation. After all, the U.S. has already demonstrated that it is very difficult to completely subdue a theocratic regime. Venezuela and Iran represent two entirely different systems, which I estimate is something Trump regrets deeply.

But in any case, if the talks can happen, that would be excellent. If an agreement is completed this week or early next week, and Iran officially opens the Strait of Hormuz, it would greatly assist the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. The new Federal Reserve Chairman, Waller, can also better represent Trump in his statements, and Trump's faction may dare to signal a dovish approach on the dot plot.

Recently, the trend of WTI also indicates that the market is betting that the U.S. and Iran will come to an end, believing that the probability of the Strait of Hormuz opening is quite high. If this indeed happens, I believe that oil prices returning to around $65 is not a problem, but it may take about two months, during which shorting still has a high cost-performance ratio.

Returning to the data on Bitcoin, traditional investors have been somewhat slack lately. I don't know if it has anything to do with SpaceX, but after today there may be some inflow of funds, especially since BlackRock investors have started buying again, likely gambling on the U.S. and Iran reaching an agreement. After all, the probability of a substantial increase if a complete agreement is reached is still quite significant.

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