Bitcoin BTC$63,271.85 has carved out a relief bounce after plunging below $60,000 on Friday, but a bounce and a bullish revival are two very different things. The latter hinges on a couple of key price levels, according to analysts.

"The market has become oversold enough for sharp relief rallies, especially if inflation data softens and ETF outflows slow," analysts at HEX Trust said in an email. "But the difference between a relief rally and a regime shift is acceptance ... BTC needs [to retake] $79k-$80k."

In other words, anything below $80,000 would be seen as a corrective bounce within the broader bear market that began last year. Only a move beyond that would signal the beginning of a new advance.

Their stance may be overly cautious, according to some observers.

"Technically, a recovery up to $68K could be viewed as a rebound from the downward momentum seen between 11 May and 5 June," said Alex Kuptsikevich, the chief analyst at FxPro, hinting at a lower price level to beat for the bulls.

A rally even to these levels hinges on ETF flows and macro factors. The 11 spot bitcoin ETFs listed in the U.S. have processed redemptions over $5 billion in the past four weeks. On Monday, investors yanked another $91 million, according to data source SoSoValue.

These outflows need to meaningfully reverse for the bitcoin price to gain upward momentum. In addition, Wednesday's U.S. inflation data may have to come in softer than expected, easing concerns the Fed will raise interest rates. The data is expected to show the cost of living topped 4% in May, well above the Fed's 2% goal.

"The constructive path is conditional: inflation softens, Treasury yields stabilize, AI equities stop de-risking, BTC/ETH ETF outflows slow, and the market reclaims the key technical levels. Until then, the conclusion is deliberately simple: below the reclaim, there is no regime shift," Hex Trust said. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead."

What’s trending

• Humanity Protocol token crashes more than 80% after a $32 million private-key hack (CoinDesk): Humanity Protocol's H token crashed more than 80% after attackers stole the private keys behind the project and drained more than $30 million, and losses are still climbing.
• Chinese mining CEO says Strategy can survive a $30,000 bitcoin without selling (CoinDesk): Even if bitcoin drops to $30,000, it won't derail Strategy's BTC plans, said Jiang Zhuoer, CEO at BTC.TOP.
• Trump says Iran deal could be reached in ‘two or three days’ and Strait of Hormuz will reopen ‘immediately’ (CNBC): President Donald Trump said Tuesday that a deal to end the war in Iran could be reached in “two or three days,” and that the critical Strait of Hormuz would reopen “immediately” after such a deal.
• Oil falls as Israel-Iran attacks halt and China slashes imports (Bloomberg): Brent crude slipped below $93 a barrel, and West Texas Intermediate traded near $89. Israel said it is holding fire against Iran for now, but will respond should Tehran attack again. China’s oil purchases from overseas fell to the lowest in more than eight years.

Today’s signal

The chart shows bitcoin's hourly price swings in candlestick format along with the MACD histogram in the lower pane, which shows trend changes and strength.

Prices are currently trading close to a trendline, which represents the mini-bounce from Friday's low. A break of this trendline would mark the end of the bounce and open the path for a potential test of recent lows.

The negative MACD histogram suggests bearish momentum is strong, meaning the trendline support may not last long.