Bitcoin price fluctuates with the U.S.-Iran war, showing a clear trend of polarization.

In two days, May will be over. Last week, many friends said that this month we might see Bitcoin:native prices starting with six. I don’t know if it can be realized, but for me, it still depends on the direction of the U.S.-Iran war conflict. If an agreement can be continuously reached, it will help Bitcoin break out of its slump.

From the latest data, the long-term holding of Bitcoin continues to increase. At this growth rate, it is very likely to break 15 million coins in June, which means nearly 75% of BTC is held by long-term holders.

But there will definitely be friends questioning that if so much #Bitcoin has not participated in trading, why has the price of BTC not rebounded after reaching 82,000 dollars, while U.S. stocks continue to rise?

This is a very realistic question, so I also put the exchange inventory data in the diagram, and friends can clearly see that from the time BTC broke the historical high of long-term holding to now, the total amount of long-term holding has increased by 80,000 coins.

And from a month ago when the exchange inventory was at its lowest this year to now, the exchange inventory has increased by nearly 50,000 Bitcoin, resulting in severe polarization. This means that although more BTC has moved to long-term holding or remained in the hands of long-term holders, there is still a significant portion that has transferred to exchanges, preparing to sell or has already sold.

The reason for this situation is mainly that long-term holders are not sensitive to prices, often adopting the strategy of not selling when prices are lower, and they have clear confidence in the future of Bitcoin. However, this increase in long-term holding does not represent an increase in purchasing power, and selling directly consumes liquidity in the market.

Especially in such a period of poor liquidity, BTC becomes more sensitive to U.S. macro, political, and economic conditions, and indeed U.S. stocks are performing better. It is also normal for some short-term investors to leave and invest in U.S. stocks.

So the current polarization essentially means that long-term funds continue to lock their positions, while short-term funds are obviously defensive. Especially before there is a clear result in the U.S.-Iran conflict, many funds, even if they are optimistic about BTC in the long term, will still transfer some positions to exchanges to maintain the ability to sell or hedge at any time.

Moreover, with U.S. stocks currently supported by AI, technology giants, and buybacks, BTC lacks a new strong buying narrative. Therefore, for Bitcoin now, the key still depends on whether the war conflict can ease and whether inflation in the U.S. shows signs of reduction.

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