On May 23, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index was at a "Fear" zone with a score of 28. According to AiCoin data, on the same night, all three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up approximately +0.58%, the S&P 500 up about +0.37%, and the Nasdaq up roughly +0.19%. Qualcomm soared about 11.6% in a single day, AMD rose nearly 4%, and AI chip stocks surged while crypto-related stocks like MSTR dropped about 3.01% and COIN fell approximately 4%, creating a stark contrast with the broader market. On-chain, another emotional clue emerged: BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes' associated wallet transferred about 115,453 HYPE (approximately $6.33 million) and around 1.76 million AERO (approximately $785,000) to Bybit within the fear zone, and it was observed that he still held about 247,334 HYPE, valued at around $13.6 million at that time, though there is currently no public data indicating the subsequent whereabouts of these assets on exchanges. Meanwhile, the U.S. House Oversight and Accountability Committee announced it would investigate whether Polymarket and Kalshi were involved in insider trading by government employees, Robinhood reported Q1 crypto-related revenue of approximately $134 million, down about 47% year-on-year, and its crypto business COO Tanya Denisova was reported to be leaving soon. On another front, DeepSeek is pushing for around 50 billion RMB in financing, with industry giants like CATL reportedly looking to participate. Overseas media reported that Anthropic's cumulative financing has exceeded $30 billion. In the backdrop of "crypto retreat and AI frenzy," these on-chain and off-chain signals collectively pose a question: is the current fear merely the middle stage of a prolonged retreat, or a low-level buildup before the next narrative turning point?

U.S. Stocks Favor AI Chips, Crypto Stocks in the Shadows

If large financing in the primary market is just a slow variable of sentiment, the secondary market has already expressed a more straightforward vote. On May 23, 2026, the three major U.S. stock indices collectively closed in the green, with the Dow Jones up about +0.58%, the S&P 500 up about +0.37%, and the Nasdaq up about +0.19%. However, what truly captured attention was not the indices themselves, but the main line of AI hardware: on the same day, Qualcomm's stock price rose about 11.6%, and AMD increased nearly 4%, with AI chip targets showing a "fast-track" performance.

In stark contrast, crypto-related stocks collectively stalled. Among crypto concept stocks, MSTR fell about 3.01% that day, and COIN dropped approximately 4%, clearly underperforming the broader market on the same trading day. On the emotional dimension, according to public data, the Fear and Greed Index remained at 28 in the "Fear" zone, indicating that even as U.S. stocks continue to ride the AI narrative, interest in crypto narratives has significantly cooled. There is a divergence between the AI hardware being favored by capital and major tech stocks, and crypto assets lingering at low levels of sentiment, which itself serves as the most intuitive footnote of the current "crypto retreat and AI frenzy" scenario.

Arthur Hayes Transfers HYPE and AERO

While the Fear and Greed Index is still at 28 in the "Fear" category, veteran traders have begun reallocating their chips on-chain. According to AiCoin data, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes recently moved two types of altcoins to Bybit: about 115,453 HYPE, valued at approximately $6.33 million at the time, and around 1.76 million AERO, worth about $785,000, which has been clearly marked on-chain as a position action with unclear direction but evident intent.

More notably, after the transfer was completed, the wallet address still retained about 247,334 HYPE, valued at approximately $13.6 million, and did not exhibit a "liquidation" scenario. Currently, no public chain or market data can confirm whether these assets have already been sold or are being used for other purposes, making the market more inclined to interpret it as a structural adjustment—at a time when crypto sentiment is low, Arthur Hayes chose to push part of HYPE and AERO onto exchanges while keeping more maneuverability within the market, and continued to hold a substantial amount of HYPE, which does not seem like a total retreat but rather a reallocation of risks for the next phase.

Polymarket and Kalshi Under Congress's Spotlight

While large on-chain players are rearranging their strategies, Washington has also turned its attention to another "odds" battlefield. The U.S. House Oversight and Accountability Committee, led by Chairman James Comer, has publicly stated it will investigate whether Polymarket and Kalshi are involved in insider trading by government employees, planning to request relevant trading and user information from both platforms. Comer expressed concerns that some government employees might be using non-public information to participate in prediction contracts and profit from them—if true, prediction markets would not just be tools for "betting on events" but would be viewed as new compliance minefields surrounding sensitive political events.

Procedurally, this action is still in the information-gathering phase, with no formal hearing schedule announced, and no potential penalties clearly documented. However, the uncertainty itself is enough to create pressure. Polymarket has previously had friction with U.S. regulators over compliance issues, and the entire prediction market has long been in a regulatory gray area. Now that Congress has specifically highlighted it, it is hard not to interpret this as a structural vigilance from the U.S. regarding prediction markets and trading around sensitive political events. With the Fear Index hovering at a low of 28 and crypto sentiment trending cold, this top-down regulatory signal may further weaken the market's imagination of "explosive growth" in the prediction market segment.

Robinhood's Crypto Trading Cooling and COO Departure

Beyond the shadow of regulation, retail investors have also cast their own "votes." As one of the most important gateways for U.S. retail investors, Robinhood disclosed in its latest financial report that its Q1 crypto-related revenue was approximately $134 million, down about 47% year-on-year. The numbers themselves are not complicated but are highly indicative: the "retail crypto trading frenzy" that has been repeatedly discussed since 2021 is now showing a clear cooling trend with the most basic revenue curve. For many ordinary investors who only interact with crypto assets through Robinhood, reducing trading and lowering frequency often means they have shifted their focus to other stories.

Following this financial report, Robinhood's crypto business COO Tanya Denisova was reported to be leaving the company, which did not publicly explain the direct reasons for her departure nor announce a successor. The departure of a core managerial role at a point when business revenue has nearly "halved" itself reinforces external perceptions of a slowdown in growth for this business line. The market finds it hard not to interpret these two events together: on one side is a sharp reduction in crypto-related revenue, and on the other side is the departure of an executive responsible for crypto operations. Combined, these symbolize far more than just a personnel shake-up in a single company, becoming one of the most intuitive and easily felt emotional signals for the "crypto retreat" among mainstream capital.

CATL Bets on DeepSeek, Drawing Attention

As retail enthusiasm for crypto rapidly cools, big players on the other end are quietly changing tracks. Reports indicate that DeepSeek is advancing a financing round targeting approximately 50 billion RMB, with the market estimating its valuation may exceed 350 billion RMB, with specific terms still under negotiation. Companies like CATL, JD, and NetEase are named as potential significant investors; this is no longer about traditional "VCs competing for projects," but rather the top cash cows of the supply chain personally entering the field, valuing AI large models at levels surpassing most crypto projects.

This preference disparity is not limited to domestic players. Overseas media reported that Anthropic's cumulative financing has exceeded $30 billion. Although this figure still requires further validation from various channels, when viewed alongside projects like DeepSeek, it is easy to sketch a common picture: on May 23, 2026, when the Fear and Greed Index was still in the "Fear" zone at 28 and MSTR and COIN were weakening against the trend, AI chip stocks and large model companies were continuously receiving high valuations and substantial orders. When traditional heavyweights like CATL begin to line up for AI, the so-called "crypto retreat" sentiment transforms from mere market fluctuations into a shift in narrative dominance across markets.

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