Bitcoin’s recovery over the past few weeks has led to shallower losses than any previous bear market on record, leading analysts to believe that the cycle may have permanently changed—though not all are convinced the old playbook is dead.
The leading crypto has retreated roughly 36% from its October all-time high of $126,080, trading at around $80,500 at the time of writing, according to CoinGecko data. That retracement is higher than past bear markets, which have historically seen drawdowns of 40% to 50% from cycle peaks.
That shift is happening due to Bitcoin’s recent recovery. It is up 12.5% over the past 30 days, but the bulk of the bounce concentrated between April 1 and May 6, which pushed Bitcoin up approximately 22%.
“The fourth bitcoin bear market has materially decoupled from past cycles, for now,” Pierre Rochard, CEO of The Bitcoin Bond Company, tweeted Tuesday, attributing the shift to a “combination of a muted bull market on the frontend, ETF inflows, and bitcoin treasury companies accumulating.”
Ryan Yoon, senior research analyst at Tiger Research, told Decrypt the institutional shift has introduced a structural support that didn't exist in previous cycles. “Strong institutional capital from ETFs and Strategy has created a 'price floor,' which is why Bitcoin is moving differently from the past,” he said.
The divergence reflects three structural changes: the diminishing pricing power of Bitcoin miners as post-halving supply shrinks, the entry of long-term capital through regulated ETF products, and a shift in custody from early crypto holders to institutional accounts, according to Allen Ding, head of research at Bitfire.
“This decoupling trend will not only persist, but also define a new normal for crypto assets,” Ding told Decrypt. The current market volatility is “essentially position reshuffling ahead of a long-term bull run,” not a point of no return.
Is the Bitcoin bear market at its end?
Not all analysts accept that the bear market is broken.
While Bitcoin has cleared key on-chain thresholds—trading above both its True Market Mean and Short-Term Holder cost basis—those same conditions preceded brief recoveries in 2014, 2018, and 2022 before the bear market resumed, according to Illia Otychenko, lead analyst at CEX.IO.
“Bitcoin hasn't reached a point of no return yet,” Otychenko told Decrypt.
Nearly 70% of short-term holder supply is now in profit—the highest since Bitcoin's October all-time high—a level that historically creates distribution pressure as holders face growing incentive to sell, he added.
With Bitcoin's one-year volatility near all-time lows, any major price move carries outsized weight, Otychenko said, adding that the U.S.-Iran conflict has made Bitcoin more sensitive to macro developments than it has been in years.
Looking ahead
Yoon outlined two paths from here. “We could see a great scenario where investors move their money into Bitcoin if the stock market stays flat,” he said. “On the other hand, if the AI bubble actually bursts and triggers a market crash, Bitcoin might drop to test lower prices again.”
Users on prediction market Myriad, owned by Decrypt's parent company Dastan, assign just a 2% chance to a U.S.-Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, down sharply from 30% on May 8—suggesting markets are pricing in a sustained absence of the peace catalyst that drove Bitcoin's recent recovery. Traders remain optimistic about Bitcoin's prospects, however, putting an 88% chance on Bitcoin's next move taking it to $84,000, up from 85% this time last week.
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