Written by: Blockchain Knight

After Bitcoin rebounded to the key level of $80,000, early holders showed signs of profit-taking, while institutional funds continuously supported the market pressure from the spot Bitcoin ETF.

With Bitcoin stabilizing at $80,000, the market experienced a noticeable wave of profit-taking.

On-chain data shows that long-term holders with positions for 2 to 3 years are increasing their selling pace, with profit-taking scale reaching $209 million per hour; these investors generally have returns of 60% to 100% on their holdings.

The net profit and loss of Bitcoin across the network has climbed to $1.12 billion, reaching the highest profit level since last December.

Unlike traditional stock market sell-offs that can trigger panic, the crypto market views large-scale profit-taking during the upward process as a signal of healthy fundamentals.

Despite hundreds of millions in selling pressure, Bitcoin still maintained the $80,000 level, confirming strong real buying demand in the market.

At the same time, the chips have been rotated, high-position profit-taking chips have exited the market, and new entrants have taken positions around $80,000, reshaping the overall holding cost of the market and solidifying bottom support, making short-term market selling sentiment tend to stabilize.

The spot ETF is a core pillar for stabilizing the market. In the first two trading days of May, the net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs exceeded $1.1 billion, with products under BlackRock alone absorbing over $600 million in funds.

Currently, ETF funds are showing a positive trend with an extended inflow cycle and weakened outflow pressure, while institutional long-term allocation demand continues to be released.

Industry analysts indicate that the scale of institutional purchases currently exceeds five times the daily Bitcoin supply from miners; based on historical trends, there is considerable potential for average gains in the following month.

The derivatives market continues to squeeze short positions; since the beginning of February, the scale of short liquidation has reached $7.88 billion.

Even though shorts continue to increase their positions at the $80,000 resistance level, they are still facing forced liquidations, further pushing the price upward.

Market prediction data shows that the probability of Bitcoin breaking through $85,000 by the end of the month is 62%, and the probability of reaching $90,000 is 25%.

At the macro level, Bitcoin withstands external bearish factors such as Federal Reserve policies and oil price fluctuations, showing strong resilience, but there are still technical resistances in the range of $82,000 to $83,000 and the 200-day moving average.

The easing of geopolitical tensions has reduced market volatility, and the regulatory bill for the U.S. crypto industry has entered the review stage, with regulatory certainty expected to boost institutional confidence; the industry generally believes the crypto market has entered a warming cycle.

Therefore, the tug-of-war at the $80,000 level seems more like a transition of Bitcoin from a retail speculative target to an institutional asset allocation.

As long as ETF institutional buying continues to absorb profit-taking pressure, Bitcoin's push to the next important level will have solid fundamental support.

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