The next BTC tailwind could come from Treasury spending.

The TGA just refilled back toward ~$1T after April tax receipts, which looks like a liquidity headwind on the surface. But that level is close to what Treasury had already guided as the late-April peak before a May drawdown.

Tax day likely reset the drain instead of ending it.

If Treasury spends that balance down from here, cash flows back into reserves and money markets.

That matters more this cycle because the RRP buffer is largely gone. In 2023, Treasury cash swings could be absorbed by money funds moving out of the reverse repo facility. Today, more of that flow should show up directly in system liquidity.

This does not guarantee upside, but it marks a clear shift in the liquidity backdrop. One of the main headwinds from Q1 may be flipping into a Q2 tailwind.

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