Written by: Zhou Ziheng

From early 2025 to early 2026, gold prices experienced a sharp increase, benefiting from geopolitical tensions, inflation fears, and de-dollarization trends, pushing gold prices to quickly rise from lower levels to a historic high of about $5,600/ounce by the end of January 2026. However, with the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict at the end of February 2026, gold did not continue to perform as a safe-haven asset as traditionally expected and instead saw significant sell-offs. In March, gold prices recorded their worst monthly performance since 2013, dropping over 10%, retreating about 20-25% from the peak, falling back to around $4,100-$4,300/ounce, and then rebounding slightly in early April on ceasefire news, hovering around $4,800-$4,900/ounce by mid-April.

The core of this abnormal performance lies in the localized bubble formed by the previous excessive rise and the rapid adjustment of market positions. Gold had been rapidly revalued from an undervalued state to near fair value before the crisis, even entering a locally overheated area. The rapid rise attracted a large amount of fast money inflow, including speculative positions and leveraged funds. When risk appetite turned and liquidity demand surged, these positions exited quickly, putting short-term pressure on gold prices. Even when central banks slightly reduced their gold holdings to obtain dollar liquidity in some cases, this increased the selling pressure. Historically, gold often falls first due to liquidity squeeze during crises, then rebounds when uncertainty persists. At the beginning of the Iran conflict, gold prices briefly spiked to $5,246/ounce but then fell back due to a stronger dollar, rising real yields, and changing interest rate expectations triggered by soaring energy prices.

Analysts point out that the traditional safe-haven attribute of gold has not disappeared, but when asset prices double or triple within a short period, its appeal as a "safe harbor" temporarily weakens. Investors tend to take profits when other assets (like energy) offer higher immediate returns. Data from the World Gold Council indicates that gold averaged a 7.5% increase six months after the conflict, provided that previous gains were not excessively overextended. This event reaffirms: when positions are overly concentrated on one-sided bullish bets, any external shock can trigger asymmetric adjustments.

Increased Volatility in Silver and Loss of Asymmetric Opportunities

Silver's performance was even more extreme. In 2025, silver prices surged about 130-149%, and continued to rise inertia in early 2026, but then similarly faced substantial corrections. Silver has both monetary and industrial properties, and its price volatility is typically more than twice that of gold. In the first half of 2026, silver's 180-day volatility reached a new high since 1980, exceeding five times that of the S&P 500 index.

During the early low-price stage (around $17/ounce), silver showed significant asymmetric upside potential: industrial demand (solar energy, electronics, electric vehicles) combined with investment demand could rapidly double its price. However, once prices achieved multiple gains, the asymmetry significantly weakened. The market may simultaneously face an optimistic scenario of rising to $100/ounce and the realistic risk of falling back to $40/ounce. Following the sharp rise in 2025-2026, silver experienced one of the largest sell-offs in history, stabilizing afterwards, but volatility did not subside.

High volatility in silver prices stems from a persistent supply-side deficit. The Silver Institute's 2026 report estimates that the silver market will face a sixth consecutive year of deficit, amounting to about 46.3 million ounces. Industrial demand remains strong, but high prices may suppress some downstream applications, while ETF inflows and outflows further magnify liquidity fluctuations. Investors need to recognize that silver is suitable as a supplementary exposure to gold, but the position size should be smaller than gold to match its higher risk characteristics. In the current environment, silver is more suitable for tactical allocation rather than long-term core holding, unless the industrial cycle clearly turns toward expansion.

Bitcoin's Relative Resilience During the Conflict and Its Causes

In contrast to gold and silver, Bitcoin displayed relative stability and even outperformed during the Iranian conflict in 2026. Bitcoin had previously experienced a significant correction from late 2025 to early 2026, retreating from a peak of about $126,000 in October 2025 to a range of about $66,000-$93,000 in early 2026. After the conflict broke out, Bitcoin briefly dipped but then rebounded, outperforming gold in the first month of the conflict, and even showing a temporary phenomenon where Bitcoin outperformed gold by 25%.

This resilience is not because Bitcoin has become a "digital safe-haven asset," but rather that a large amount of fast money had already cleared out. In 2025, speculative positions within the Bitcoin ecosystem were significantly cleaned out, leaving behind mainly "strong hands," including long-term institutions and believers. In contrast, gold had accumulated too many profit-taking positions before the conflict. Bitcoin's network effect and self-reinforcing protocol characteristics (similar to TCP/IP or USB) provide long-term demand support in the decentralized value storage and permissionless payment space. Although Bitcoin still shows risk asset characteristics in the short term and is highly correlated with equity markets and liquidity conditions, its prior adjustments in 2025-2026 alleviated additional selling pressure during the crisis.

Currently, Bitcoin's market cap is about $2 trillion, far from its long-term peak limit. Institutional adoption through spot ETFs is ongoing, and the growth of stablecoins as a dollar offshore alternative further strengthens the foundational infrastructure of the crypto ecosystem. Bitcoin and gold are not zero-sum competitors but each undergo cycles: gold is more affected by macro monetary policy and geopolitical factors, while Bitcoin benefits more from technology adoption and network growth. In the long run, both benefit from the trend of currency depreciation but must be cautious of their respective overheating stages.

Gold Mining Companies: Profit Margins, Energy Costs, and Risk Assessment

The rise in gold prices directly benefits mining companies. From 2025 to 2026, the significant increase in gold prices drove miners' average realized prices from around $4,100/ounce to about $4,600-$4,800/ounce in the first quarter of 2026, with some quarters higher. Miners' all-in sustaining costs (AISC) averaged around $1,500-$1,600/ounce, resulting in significant margin expansion, with many major producers achieving gross profits of over $2,000 per ounce, some exceeding 150%. Free cash flow hit record highs, and balance sheets swung to net cash positions.

However, energy costs constitute a significant portion of mining expenses (though not all). The energy crisis triggered by the Iran conflict pushed oil and gas prices higher, directly squeezing miners' marginal profits. If gold prices stop rising or fall back, while energy prices remain high, miners will face dual pressures. Gold mining ETFs like GDX followed the upward trend at the beginning of the gold price increase but subsequently retraced due to conflict risks. Some analysts believe that if gold prices structurally trend towards $10,000 while oil prices stay below $150, miners still have upside potential; however, if gold prices oscillate in the $4,000-$5,000 range with energy costs fluctuating, miner performance may be lackluster.

The mining sector no longer possesses the significant asymmetry that earlier generations experienced at market bottoms. Early investors could benefit from the leverage effect of undervaluation to multiple returns, but after significant increases, the risk-reward ratio tends to equilibrate. Professional investors may still uncover opportunities through stock selection: focus on companies with excellent geological conditions, stable jurisdiction, outstanding management, and reasonable valuations. Retail investors should be cautious, prioritizing the rebalancing of positions where partial profits have been realized instead of adding new heavy positions. In the first quarter of 2026, mining stocks recorded phase-wise increases, but energy shocks have caused some of those gains to be reversed, highlighting the sector's sensitivity to macro variables.

The Next Phase of Bitcoin: Institutional Signals and Real-World Asset Tokenization

Bitcoin's structural adoption surpasses short-term speculation. The attendance of US presidential candidates at Bitcoin conferences in 2024 briefly boosted prices, but the real driving force is the improvement in the regulatory environment. A shift from adversarial regulation to a more open policy environment has occurred, although it comes with a certain degree of "fraud golden age" risks. Bitcoin serves as a decentralized ledger, energy-supported value storage, and permissionless payment protocol, featuring self-reinforcing network effects, with the market size expected to exceed the previous $2 trillion peak.

The stablecoin market continues to expand and has become an effective solution for offshore dollar demand. In 2026, the circulation of stablecoins is expected to exceed $1 trillion, benefiting from smartphone users' ability to access accounts equivalent to offshore bank accounts, while simultaneously reducing cross-border payment costs. Of course, centralized features imply sanction risks, but for non-high-risk jurisdictions, its value as a working capital tool is significant.

Tokenized gold products have been continuously developed since 2018, including Paxos Gold and Tether Gold. Tokenized gold is not tied to a single jurisdiction, facilitating cross-border transfers, suitable for capital pools wishing to retain gold exposure but avoid the restrictions of traditional financial systems. Similar to gold ETFs, it is not a substitute for physically stored gold but provides convenience for certain institutional capital. By 2025, the market capitalization of tokenized gold has surged from $1.6 billion to $4.4 billion, growing rapidly.

Wider real-world asset (RWA) tokenization focuses on high-quality assets, including stablecoins, gold, as well as certain stocks and securities. Tokenization can enhance global accessibility, enabling 24/7 trading, particularly benefiting investors in developing countries. Blockchain infrastructure firms are bringing securities and equity onto the blockchain, lowering the entry threshold. Institutional signals continue to emerge: Morgan Stanley is launching Bitcoin ETFs, while Tether invests in gold-related enterprises. However, it is essential to distinguish between structural adoption and temporary speculation. Meme coins and some areas of DeFi and NFTs show weak structural growth and are even stagnating, while Bitcoin and high-quality RWA tokenization still possess long-term potential.

Investor Strategy: Distinguishing Roads from Vehicles

In the realm of crypto and asset tokenization, some strategies focus on "owning the roads and toll booths rather than the vehicles on the road." That is, investing in exchanges, infrastructure, or entities benefiting from overall market activity (whether bull or bear), rather than specific asset price fluctuations. These companies can continually profit throughout market cycles, providing more stable exposure.

Overall, gold, silver, and Bitcoin are all in a long-term structural bull trend, benefiting from the evolution of the monetary system and decentralization demand. However, in the short term, caution is needed regarding the risks associated with position adjustments after overheating. Gold’s sell-off during the crisis serves as a reminder to investors: excessively rapid prior gains can weaken its safe-haven attributes; silver’s volatility demands more cautious position management; Bitcoin's resilience stems from prior purging but is still not a traditional safe-haven tool. Mining companies offer leveraged exposure but must not overlook energy and geopolitical risks. Tokenization technology is reshaping asset accessibility, and both stablecoins and high-quality RWA are worthy of attention, while meme and speculative fields carry higher risks.

Looking ahead to the remainder of 2026 and beyond, gold prices could fluctuate between $4,000 and $6,000, depending on geopolitical easing, inflation trajectories, and dollar strength. Gold still possesses monetary attributes in the long term, while silver's industrial demand provides additional catalysts, and Bitcoin's network growth supports its value storage role. Investors should adopt a cyclical mindset: gradually building positions after undervaluation or excessive sell-offs, rebalancing positions during overheating phases. A diversified allocation of gold, Bitcoin, and related infrastructure can better cope with currency depreciation and geopolitical uncertainty, rather than chasing the short-term narrative of a single asset.

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