Exclusive Interview with Fu Peng, Chief Economist of Xinhou Group: Interpreting Bitcoin's Asset Attributes, the Hong Kong Real Estate Market, and Financial Advice for Ordinary People — Transcript of Techub News Dialogue

Interviewer: Techub News (Hong Kong Media)

Interviewee: Fu Peng (Chief Economist of Xinhou Group)

Content organized by: Techub News

This exclusive interview focuses on Mr. Fu Peng, discussing core topics such as Bitcoin's asset attributes, trends in the Hong Kong real estate market, and the development of digital assets, providing professional references for the integration of traditional finance and the crypto field. In the interview, Mr. Fu clarified the asset positioning of Bitcoin, dissected its differences from AI assets and safe-haven assets, and analyzed the supporting logic of the Hong Kong real estate market and the role of digital assets. Mr. Fu stated that 2026 will be an important year for the integration of crypto assets and traditional finance under the FICC framework; FICC framework + C is the inaugural year of Crypto, and this integration model will promote the compliance development of crypto assets, aiding the connection between traditional finance and emerging fields, providing clear asset allocation directions and practical guidance for investors and practitioners.

Bitcoin’s Asset Attributes: It Is Not Digital Gold, but Rather AI-Related Valuation Assets

Techub News: You previously suggested including BTC into the FICC reference framework. Given the current global liquidity crunch, rising protectionism, and declining risk appetite, do you consider Bitcoin closer to gold, a high-volatility asset, or an independent new type of safe-haven asset? As practitioners related to traditional FSC, we hope to find a definite answer regarding its asset attributes.

Fu Peng, Chief Economist of Xinhou Technology: Over the past decade, the U.S. has been synchronously advancing the definition and regulation of the crypto industry, with the core being to clarify the asset attributes of Bitcoin — this is key for investors to find the "anchor of assets." Around 2022, the U.S. crypto regulatory framework was basically completed, and Bitcoin's attributes were clarified: it is a commodity that has a value maintenance function, or a tradable asset, which is the most definitive answer.

Many people refer to it as "digital gold," but this statement is not entirely accurate. Gold also has a value maintenance function as a commodity, and has long since exited the payment scenario; their definitions are similar, but the underlying logics are completely different and should not be equated.

More noteworthy is that in the past four to five years, Bitcoin has shown a strong correlation with U.S. AI-related assets. The emergence of Bitcoin is closely related to the current wave of technological advances, data, algorithms, and computing power, but it is fundamentally different from AI assets like NVIDIA: as a publicly listed company, NVIDIA can create products, value, and services, while Bitcoin's payment functionality has been layered and stripped away by stablecoins, leaving behind its tradability, valuation layer, and value maintenance function, which in essence is more aligned with the "valuation part" of AI assets.

We conducted tests around 2022 and found that whenever liquidity tightens and AI assets experience valuation compression, Bitcoin is also affected simultaneously, leading to significant declines (such as in the 2022 market and the drop in October 2024), which corroborates our judgment on its attributes — it is precisely based on this clear framework, definition, and model that traditional FSC funds began to gradually enter crypto assets.

Techub News: Do you personally hold Bitcoin?

Fu Peng, Chief Economist of Xinhou Technology: Our positioning of it is "asset allocation," rather than merely "holding," which is entirely different from the "faith-based holding" of crypto fundamentalists. For us, Bitcoin is a tool to hedge against valuation volatility of U.S. AI assets and to gain excess valuation returns; it is a category of asset allocation within the context of the integration of FSC and crypto assets, which is fundamentally a different concept from ordinary "holding."

Capital Flow: The Difference Between Traditional Assets and Digital Assets Lies in the Distinction Between "Valuation and Value"

Techub News: From last year to this year, traditional financial assets (U.S. stocks, gold, etc.) have seen an increase exceeding that of native digital assets. How do you view this phenomenon? When will funds flow back into digital assets like Bitcoin?

Fu Peng, Chief Economist of Xinhou Technology: One cannot simply understand capital flows as "either/or" — not investing in traditional assets does not mean it will flow into digital assets; the core is the difference in the underlying logic of the two types of assets.

AI stocks in the U.S. market have both a valuation component and actual value support (businesses create value and provide services); while Bitcoin, after regulatory definition, has had its value portion stripped away, leaving only the valuation layer and value maintenance function. Therefore, when the market experiences valuation compression, AI stocks have value components to support them, whereas Bitcoin is directly impacted by valuation compression, which is the core reason for the difference in their rate of increase, rather than a simple "either/or" of capital.

In the Context of De-Globalization: The Logic of Bitcoin Allocation and Appropriate Audience

Techub News: With the current rise of de-globalization, the emergence of nationalism and protectionism, what is the value of Bitcoin to sovereign funds and listed companies' balance sheets? Who is suitable for Bitcoin allocation, who should not consider it, and how should allocation ratios be determined?

Fu Peng: There is no fixed "allocation advice" because the underlying logic of asset allocation is always about the understanding of this type of asset — there is no asset that is "always worth allocating" to; for example, gold had negative investment returns over 20 years from 1981 to 2001, and no one can endure 20 years of losses.

At this stage, in the context of de-globalization, the mainstream investment portfolio logic is to "walk on two boats": in the left hand, holding assets that believe "humanity has a future" (such as AI, data, computing power), and in the right hand, holding assets that believe "humanity may not have a future" (such as gold). Bitcoin does not belong to the latter; it is essentially an asset brought by technological advancement, consistent with tech companies like NVIDIA, Samsung, and TSMC, falling under the category of assets that believe "humanity has a future," rather than traditional safe-haven assets.

Many people's understanding of crypto assets is still stuck at the "fundamentalist belief" stage, but in the past five or six years, the attributes of crypto assets have changed — early reliance on belief, later relying on models. With the clarification of compliance regulation and application scenarios, Bitcoin's pricing logic and valuation model are gradually taking shape, which is also the core prerequisite for Wall Street's genuine involvement in the crypto field.

The Hong Kong Real Estate Market: Capital Inflow + Population Surge, Luxury Market Welcomes New Opportunities

Techub News: Recently, both Hong Kong real estate prices and rents have rebounded, but Chow Yun-fat recently sold a property for 7 million HKD. How do you view the current trend of the Hong Kong real estate market?

Fu Peng, Chief Economist of Xinhou Technology: Judging the Hong Kong real estate market, the core looks at three signals: first, the number of IPOs on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in the past year, with a large number of IPOs cashing out, funds will settle in Hong Kong; second, the number of new mainland students in Hong Kong universities, where dormitories are currently in short supply, reflecting a continuous influx of high-caliber talents; third, after Singapore tightened financial regulation and taxation, a large amount of capital has flowed back to Hong Kong.

There are limited investable fields in Hong Kong, and this flowing capital and population influx will inevitably drive demand in the luxury market. However, in the global context of de-globalization, capital choices have increased, and Hong Kong’s advantage lies in its role as a connection point between Eastern and Western cultures, conservatism, and efficiency, which is an important support for the long-term stability of its real estate market.

The Role of Hong Kong in the Global Digital Asset Field: The "Connecting Point" Between East and West

Techub News: The Hong Kong government is vigorously promoting Bitcoin and other digital assets. What role do you think Hong Kong plays in the global digital asset market?

Fu Peng, Chief Economist of Xinhou Technology: The core role of Hong Kong is to "bridge the East and the West," situated between the efficiency of the West and the conservatism of the East. The regulatory logic of the U.S. towards crypto assets is "what is not expressly prohibited is permitted," which neither stifles innovation and efficiency nor fails to ensure fairness and compliance; meanwhile, the Asian region tends to be conservative regarding new technologies and applications, often preferring to observe first before following up, which reflects the cultural value differences between East and West.

Hong Kong happens to sit between the two, neither pushing innovation as rapidly as the West nor being overly conservative like the mainland; it acts as a "connecting point" in the global digital asset field and also serves as an important "experimental ground."

Financial Advice for Ordinary People: The Core of Bitcoin is "Tradability," Not Merely Store of Value

Techub News: Provide some financial advice for ordinary white-collar workers today, especially regarding the choice between crypto assets and traditional assets.

Fu Peng, Chief Economist of Xinhou Technology: First, it should be clear that for ordinary people, the core attribute of Bitcoin is "a tradable asset with value maintenance function," which is not fundamentally different from trading goods or oil — its "tradability" is key, and its store of value function should not be overstated.

In fact, many assets also have value maintenance functions; for example, if stocks are repurchased and canceled on a large scale, they can also achieve value maintenance — it is not only gold and Bitcoin that can do this. For ordinary people, the core of financial management is to understand the underlying logic of assets, rather than blindly following trends in allocation.

In this exclusive interview, Fu Peng clearly defined the asset attributes of Bitcoin, dissected the core differences between it, AI assets, and gold, while analyzing the core supporting factors of the Hong Kong real estate market and the role positioning in the digital asset field, providing both professional and practical references for investors and ordinary people. At the end of the interview, both parties took a photo together, marking the successful conclusion of this dialogue.

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