1. News Perspective: The Game of Capital Flow and Potential Selling Pressure
ETF Trends: The overnight Ethereum spot ETF continues to record net inflows, indicating that mainstream capital remains strong in supporting near 2300, providing medium to long-term bottom support for the price.
On-chain Selling Pressure (Short): KelpDAO Attacker still has about 70,000 ETH yet to be washed out, and any movement from its address can trigger short-term fluctuations. Additionally, as the price rebounds above $2400, some of the previously trapped positions are being released, increasing profit-taking sentiment.
Macro Relations (Bearish): BTC has experienced a one-hour level death cross pullback after hitting 79429, currently falling back to around 78300. ETH has a strong correlation; if BTC cannot stabilize above 78000, ETH may see a secondary retest.
2. Technical Perspective: Bullish Momentum Weakens, Entering Platform Consolidation
Pattern Analysis: *After yesterday's V-shaped reversal, the price is currently restrained by the strong resistance zone of 2415 - 2430.
1-Hour Level: The moving average system (MA5/10/30) has begun to flatten, and the MACD histogram is shortening, indicating that upward momentum has temporarily exhausted, entering a platform consolidation period.
Key Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The 30-minute Bollinger Bands have entered an extremely tight state, signaling a directional choice within the next 12 hours.
Support Levels: First support: 2354 (MA5/10 support line)
Strong support: 2315 (yesterday's low and MA52 key level)
Resistance Levels: First resistance: 2415 (recent high)
Strong resistance: 2463 (April 18 high)
3. Operational Direction: Suggestions for No Position/Light Position Strategy
Currently at the mid-axis position of the consolidation range, it is not recommended to blindly open positions at this level.
Currently No Position:
Buy on Dip: Wait for a pullback to the 2340 - 2355 area to buy in batches at lower prices, setting a stop-loss at 2310.
Breakout Buy: If it can break through with volume and stabilize above 2420, consider buying with a target near 2460, setting a stop-loss at 2395.
Holding Yesterday's Low Position Long:
Reduction Strategy: It is recommended to take profits of 30%-50% in the 2400 - 2410 range, with the remaining position set to breakeven stop-loss.
Position Management: The current volatility may increase at any time, and high leverage holding is strictly prohibited.
Capital Allocation: It is recommended to keep the total position within 12%.
4. Risk Warning
BTC Correlation Downside Risk: If BTC breaks below the 77500 support, ETH could instantly breach the 2350 support level, triggering a long squeeze.
Hacker Dump Cashing Out: The capital flow from the KelpDAO attacker is random; once there is a large-scale conversion to stablecoins, it will lead to a spike risk.
Response Plan: Must use trailing stop-loss. During the rebound, for every $20 increase, it is recommended to move the stop-loss up in sync to ensure that existing profits are not lost.
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