Today, I am still chatting with many friends about the trends of the battles between the United States and Iran. Although Trump has stated that he will not extend the ceasefire with Iran, everyone generally believes that Trump's TACO possibility is very high. After all, continuing to take action is not beneficial for either the United States or Iran, and Iran's hardline stance is likely to cause a lot of headaches for the U.S.
At the very least, Iran is definitely prepared to take action again. If they really do take action, it would negatively affect Trump in terms of both the midterm elections and his intimidation against Cuba. Actually, the collapse of this negotiation also shows that Iran's main reason for blocking the Strait of Hormuz is the gunfire between Israel and Lebanon. When the gunfire stops, Iran has also shown a willingness to lift the blockade, even willing to unlock it under U.S. pressure.
I think it is already quite good, but after Iran unlocked, Trump continued to maintain the blockade, which probably made Iran uncomfortable. Therefore, Iran re-blocked the Strait of Hormuz, which is also the main reason for the current negotiations' lack of progress. The WTI oil price has also returned to $90 as expected; this price was anticipated over the weekend, but it still hasn’t settled down, as they want to collect some funding rates and continue to short at high levels.
Looking back at Bitcoin's data, although the cessation of negotiations has affected the risk market causing some fluctuations, this scale is already within expectations. As long as there is no resumption of fighting, it feels like the market will not be overly pessimistic. There are only two days left until the final ceasefire time; if the ceasefire can be maintained, I personally feel that the increase in oil prices will also be quite limited. This is also why I insist on shorting WTI.
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