Author: Blockchain Knight

The Bitcoin network's activity level has reached its lowest point in eight years, with CryptoQuant data showing that the number of active addresses dropped to a new low since 2016 on April 8.

Glassnode data indicates that there are currently only 661,313 active addresses in a 24-hour period, yet the price of Bitcoin has not seen significant fluctuations.

This seemingly contradictory trend is fundamentally rooted in a structural change in the market, with more and more trading moving to off-chain, making on-chain activity unable to reflect the true market heat.

Off-chain trading has become the core battleground for price discovery. Bitcoin ETFs like BlackRock's IBIT and CME Bitcoin futures offer Bitcoin exposure through off-chain methods, allowing fund managers to rotate investments through these channels without the need to use wallets and addresses, thus not being counted by Glassnode.

Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have also submitted applications for Bitcoin ETFs, creating capital inflow channels that do not require touching the underlying blockchain.

The open interest in CME Bitcoin futures continues to rise, reaching 23,827 contracts on April 10, with a notional value of $8.77 billion, as tactical traders re-engage.

The current market exhibits characteristics of capital inflow but low participation.

CoinShares reports that digital asset product inflows totaled $1.1 billion in a single week, with Bitcoin accounting for $871 million, marking the strongest single-week inflow since early January, but the trading volume of $21 billion is far below this year's average of $31 billion.

Glassnode data shows that 13.45 million Bitcoin are in a low liquidity state, held by long-term holders, with limited tradable chips in the market, strong supply stickiness but insufficient new demand.

The funding flow for ETFs is mixed; IBIT and MSBT have inflows, while FBTC and GBTC have seen outflows.

In the spot market, the purchasing speed of BN exceeds that of Coinbase, reflecting that offshore funds and certain institutions are still the main buyers, rather than bids from domestic U.S. institutions, making the assertion of a "U.S. institutional takeover" unfounded.

Glassnode's accumulation trend score is 0, indicating that the market is in a non-accumulation state, with demand still below long-term low levels, and the recovery situation is fragile and dependent on capital flow.

On the technical front, Glassnode lists $78,100 (real market average) and $81,600 (cost basis for short-term holders) as key resistance levels; a breakout could signal a move toward Citibank's target price of $112,000.

On the macro level, expectations for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Goldman Sachs and others anticipate two cuts starting in September) and energy price trends will impact liquidity, thereby supporting Bitcoin's movement.

The current Bitcoin market has been reorganized around off-chain trading; low on-chain activity does not mean a market downturn, but the foundation supporting the current price is narrow and susceptible to reversals in capital flow and macro tightening.

Next, attention should focus on whether ETF fund inflows continue, whether Coinbase's spot demand can reverse, whether on-chain activity recovers, and whether CME's open interest continues to rise; only with these signals improving together can the sustainability of market recovery be confirmed.

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