This world is so magical, after reversing once again, of course, this is within expectation. Yesterday I mentioned that Iran's claim of a "permanent" lifting of the ban is just casual talk; there are many conditional constraints. As a result, less than 24 hours later, Iran announced again that because the United States has not lifted the blockade on Iranian ports, it has sealed the Strait of Hormuz once again and has taken military action against passing ships.

Next, there are probably three scenarios. The first is that Trump lifts the blockade on Iranian ports over the TACO weekend, so on Monday oil prices will continue to fall. The second is that Trump remains inactive, and Iran is unwilling to escalate, just continuing to drag it out, but it is estimated that this will not last too long. The third is that Iran gets angry and directly tears up the ceasefire agreement; this possibility is the least likely.

However, from a long-term perspective, neither the United States nor Iran wants to continue fighting, so although there may still be some entanglements, a long-term ceasefire and a decline in oil prices are very likely. Of course, this does not mean that the market will start to improve; there are still many pitfalls ahead.

Looking back at Bitcoin's data, the trading rate over the weekend has decreased, and the trading volume is also declining. Although the price has some fluctuations, overall it is within a normal range. After all, it has been mentioned many times that the current rise is the market's expectation of a ceasefire between the United States and Iran, that U.S. inflation will not continue to rise, and that recession will not come, but it is not the main contradiction in the current economy, which is monetary policy.

The upcoming examinations include the change of the Federal Reserve chairman, tariffs, and the midterm elections three times. Let's continue to watch Trump perform.

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