At around 10 PM Beijing time, the market trend took a sharp downturn, with Bitcoin encountering strong resistance, quickly falling below the $74,000 threshold, dipping as low as approximately $73,300. Meanwhile, Ethereum was not spared and also plummeted, breaching the critical psychological support level of $2,300, causing market sentiment to shift from optimistic to cautious.

　　This sudden sharp decline caught many contract investors, who were bullish on the market and did not have time to retreat, off guard, triggering a massive wave of liquidations in the derivatives market. In the past 24 hours, a total of up to 137,000 cryptocurrency accounts faced liquidation. The total liquidation amount skyrocketed to $350 million, indicating that the sellers' counterattack was extremely strong, with long positions being the main victims.

　　Bitcoin four-hour chart

　　Currently, Bitcoin's situation shows that it is moving sideways at a high level, accumulating strength. The larger direction remains bullish, but the short-term price seems a bit high, necessitating a slight pullback. In simpler terms, the overall trend is fine, but don't rush to chase high in the short term; either wait for a pullback or look for a clear breakout upward before proceeding.

　　The most critical factor is to observe the Fibonacci lines. Drawing from the previous low of 64936 to the high of 75985, the current price is hovering around 74314. Where is it currently stuck? Just slightly above the 0.236 retracement level of 73778, it is consolidating. This signals that during a strong trend, pullbacks are often shallow, as the heavyweights do not want prices to drop too low, making it cheaper for retail investors. The upper pressure point is the previous high of 75985, while the lower support is first at 73778 (0.236), then watching 71765 (0.382), and further down to 70461 (0.5) which is a stronger support level.

　　Looking at the Bollinger Bands, the midline is rising, and price is firmly standing above the midline, which is a positive sign indicating that the trend for upward movement is still present. However, the upper band is starting to narrow towards the middle, signaling a contraction. This means that fluctuations are decreasing, and the market is gearing up to choose a direction. After a contraction, there are usually two paths: either a breakout upwards to challenge the previous high of 76000, or failing to hold could lead to a drop below the midline, resulting in a pullback to the range of 73000-71700.

　　On the MACD indicator, the MACD red histogram is getting shorter and the two lines, DIF and DEA, are almost converging at high levels. This indicates that the momentum for rising is weakening, and the market is entering a phase of rest and adjustment. This does not necessarily mean a significant drop is imminent, but it clearly tells you that now is not the time to chase and buy; instead, it is better to patiently wait for a pullback to consider where to enter.

　　For the KDJ indicator, the three lines are entangled around the 50 level, with the J value slightly lifting upwards. This reflects the current balance of power between bulls and bears, with the bulls holding a slight edge.

　　In summary, the prediction suggests that the next steps are likely to unfold in two phases. The first phase: a consolidation in the small range of 74000-74800, shaking off the indecisive funds. The second phase: after the consolidation, a direction will need to be chosen.

　　In a stronger scenario (which I believe has a higher probability): If it can maintain above 74500, there will be a chance to push higher, first looking at 75200, then at the pressure level of 76000.

　　In a weaker scenario: If it breaks below the critical level of 73700, it may pull back downward, first targeting 73000, then 71700.

　　Regarding practical strategies, here are two suggestions. The long position is the priority: First, wait for a pullback to around 73700, looking for signs of stability before going long, with a stop loss set at 73200, and targeting 74800 or 75900. Secondly, if the price strongly breaks through 74800 and holds, you can follow the trend to pursue higher. For short positions, this is only suitable for experienced traders with light positions: If the price hits the region between 74800 to 76000 but fails to break through, and a weakening signal appears on a smaller timeframe (like 15 minutes), you may consider taking a light short position, targeting a return to 73700.

　　So, is it a good time to act at the position of 74300? I will state directly: this is not the optimal point to chase long. If you go long, the potential profit-to-risk ratio is not very favorable; if you short, it goes against the larger trend, which carries significant risk.

　　In conclusion, a true expert is not someone who jumps in and out of the market every day but acts only when there is an advantage and a suitable risk-to-reward ratio. The optimal strategy now is to patiently wait for a pullback to around 73700 to accumulate at a lower level, or to wait for a clear breakout above 74800 before chasing.

　　Giving you a 100% accurate suggestion is not as good as providing you with the correct ideas and trends; teaching someone to fish is better than giving them fish; the advice may earn temporarily, but learning the methodology can yield a lifetime of profit!

　　Writing time: (2026-04-17, 00:50)

　　(This article by Daxian on cryptocurrency) hereby states: There is a delay in online publication, and the above suggestions are for reference only. Investment carries risk; market entry requires caution!

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