Duan Yongping publicly changed his stance on March 30: he retracted his previous statement about not investing in Pop Mart.

The timing is subtle - Pop Mart just released the strongest financial report in its history (revenue of 37.1 billion, net profit of 13.1 billion, a net profit margin of 35% comparable to Moutai), but its stock price plummeted 22% on the day of the report, dropping from a high of 339 Hong Kong dollars to 146 Hong Kong dollars, halving its value.

What did Duan Yongping see? My judgment: he is taking the same path he took when investing in Pinduoduo - "I don't understand the business model, but I understand people."

Wang Ning voluntarily stepped on the brakes during the best year for performance (guidance only for a 20% growth), which likely does not appear as a negative in Duan Yongping's eyes, but rather as the strongest signal of corporate culture.

But Pop Mart is not Moutai. Its current market value is three times that of Sanrio (the parent company of Hello Kitty, with a 50-year history), the collapse of Funko is imminent, and LABUBU contributes nearly 40% of its revenue. The demand for emotional value is eternal, but the lifecycle of the carrier is not.

I wrote a research report covering the reasons for the crash, the complete logic chain of Duan Yongping, and three scenario valuations for interested readers, please move to the public account for better formatting than X.

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/O_SplaVINFamQIctDIX_RA

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