The current round of the cryptocurrency market is in an important transitional phase. After experiencing a months-long correction, Bitcoin has recently shown a slight rebound and is re-testing the key support range that was previously lost. However, overall, the market's recovery foundation remains unstable, and the trend is still relatively weak. Ongoing macro pressures continue to accumulate, liquidity is marginally weakening, and with key policy events approaching, the market's pricing logic is changing. As we enter April, although there are seasonal expectations for strength, historical performance is significantly differentiated, and market movements are more likely to be driven by liquidity, position structure, and macro catalysts rather than simple cyclical repetition.

Support Repeatedly Tested: Trend Weakness Has Not Alleviated

Since entering the downtrend in October 2025, Bitcoin has tested the key support range for the third time. Historically, similar structures often manifest as: a rapid drop below support followed by the formation of a temporary low point and an attempt to establish a new support level, but the overall trend has not truly reversed. The current market has returned to a similar position, indicating that the support below is still in a repeated testing process, and the weakness of the trend has not significantly improved.

From a timing perspective, this kind of low-level consolidation typically does not immediately confirm a direction, but rather needs to undergo a period of fluctuation before entering the next stage of movement. Currently, the $65,000–66,000 range has become a key watershed; if it is lost, the market may again enter an accelerated downtrend, with potential space pointing further toward lower ranges.

Liquidity and Macro Dominate: Rhythm Takes Precedence Over Direction

April has traditionally been seen as a relatively strong month, but historical data shows this pattern is not stable. Especially when Bitcoin enters April in a non-strong state, the market often presents stage differentiation. This time, Bitcoin enters the month in a relatively neutral state, similar to the environment before the previous rise, but the short-term rhythm remains cautious.

More critically, the dominant factors in the current market have shifted from a single narrative to liquidity and macro variables. Rising oil prices boost inflation expectations, reinforcing the market's judgment that central banks will maintain a hawkish stance, while also providing support for the dollar; these factors have historically exerted pressure on Bitcoin. Additionally, the slowdown in stablecoin growth and the sensitivity of ETF fund flows to policy signals also reflect that liquidity has not yet formed sustained upward momentum.

From a time structure perspective, the internal rhythm of April remains crucial: liquidity is thin and volatility amplifies at the beginning of the month; mid-month sees a dense release of macro data and policy expectations; by the end of the month, as the FOMC meeting concludes, the market may gradually clarify direction. This means that, compared to simply judging price movements, grasping the rhythm will become a more core trading variable.

Overall, Bitcoin is still in a relatively weak phase, and the short-term downward pressure has not completely eased. Under baseline conditions, the market may continue to operate weakly in the first half of April; if the key support range is breached, the downward rhythm could accelerate further. However, from a cyclical position perspective, this round of weakness may be approaching its later stage. As tax-related selling pressure gradually dissipates and policy expectations stabilize, the market environment is expected to improve marginally. Even if a rebound occurs, momentum is more likely to become evident in the middle or later part of the month. For investors, it is advisable not to rely on simple seasonal patterns at this stage but to focus on changes in liquidity, macro variables, and position structures, waiting for clearer repair signals to appear while controlling risks.

The above views are partly based on BIT on Target, Contact Us to obtain the full report of BIT on Target.

Disclaimer: The market has risks, and investments should be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading may involve significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consulting financial professionals. BIT is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided herein.

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