The first consultation between the United States and Iran is highly likely not to be in favor of the United States. The 15 terms submitted to Iran received no response, instead, Iran gave the United States 5 terms, one of which is war reparations that I believe is unlikely to pass. If it does, it would mean the United States acknowledges its mistake. To prevent the United States from escalating the war, Iran has now indicated that if the U.S. attacks its territory or islands, it might close the Strait of Mandeb, and together with Hormuz, that accounts for 25% of the global oil supply.

Currently, Iran has not relented, and the war has not ceased, but Trump's constant assertion is that Iran has already "caved". He also stated that this war could end before his visit to China in mid-May, which means there are about six weeks left. However, the impact of rising oil prices has already begun to show.

Although not officially announced, there are reports that USPS is preparing to impose an 8% fuel surcharge on all packages to offset the increase in fuel costs, which indicates that inflation is starting to be directly affected by the war. If the war cannot end, there may even be further escalation. The possibility of the U.S. raising interest rates in 2026 is not out of the question, and at that point, the chance of recession will significantly increase.

Looking back at Bitcoin's data, the recent trading volume and turnover rate have been declining, indicating that investors are gradually losing interest in the current market. From the price trend, it is evident that since February until now, the price of $BTC has been fluctuating around $70,000, with the amplitude gradually narrowing, which is a good sign, suggesting that small-scale negative information is no longer sufficient to shake investors' confidence.

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